Michigan is going to have to play a very clean game on Saturday to beat Ohio State but the Buckeyes' defense is going to make it tough.
Ohio State is a 10.5-point favorite over Michigan for Saturday's edition of "The Game" according to FanDuel and the Buckeye defense is a major reason why. That unit, led by first-year Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, is ranked No. 1 in a number of defensive categories, including total defense, pass defense and yards per play.
Buckeye Roundtable publisher Brendan Gulick has watched OSU's No. 1 ranked defense all season long and understands why Saturday's spread looks the way it does.
"Ohio State has given up nine touchdowns this year — the whole year in 11 games," Gulick said. "Five of those came in the final minute of the third quarter or later, and the scores at the time of those five touchdowns were 34-0, 35-3, 34-3, 34-10 and 14-0. So the whole point is, they've really only given up four touchdowns in meaningful gameplay this year in 11 games.
"I mean, it's it's completely crazy the way they have overwhelmed teams, and to do it with a group that lost so many good players to the draft last year, and you're turning over your defensive coordinator."
The numbers speak for themselves but it's also what Gulick said about overwhelming teams. At times, Ohio State's defense looks impenetrable. The front four is stout and disruptive, the linebackers are big, fast and smart and the defensive backs are sticky, led by maybe the best defender in the whole country, safety Caleb Down.
"Caleb Downs is playing unbelievable football," Gulick stated. "He is the safest pick in the NFL Draft, because you know what you're going to get from him. He can do so many different things on the field. He's easily one of the most valuable players in America."
But there's a "but" coming from Gulick. The veteran journalist deservedly praised Downs, but then said that the talented safety might not even be the best player on his own defense. It sounds crazy, but after explaining himself, Gulick came across pretty convincingly.
"The emergence of Arvell Reese at linebacker this year has has truly been earth shaking," Gulick said. "This kid is probably going to be a top-five pick in the draft, and he wasn't even really playing a lot of minutes last year. You can play him off the edge, you can play him up the middle. His footwork, his closing speed, his ability to tackle in open space — Arvell Reese is is like a cheat code right now."
And finally there's Patricia, the conductor of it all. Gulick praised Patricia for how simple his scheme seems to be while remaining incredibly exotic and tough for offense to figure out. Patricia was a legendary coordinator while in New England, and he might just be returning to that form in Columbus.
"Matt Patricia, who everybody, and, I mean, everybody was like, 'Matt Patricia — why is he coming to Ohio State?' Matt Patricia has done things to this defense that look like mad scientist, and it's been really, really fun to watch some of the exotic blitz schemes. I mean, from from the end of preseason camp, these guys collectively were saying they felt like they were unlocked, like they could play more freely than they could because their thought process was less clouded than it had been under the incredible complexity of the scheme that Jim Knowles was putting in."
With all of that being said about OSU's incredible defense, the Wolverines won't be scared. Michigan is at home, playing well and most importantly, riding the four-year winning streak against the Scarlet and Grey. The Buckeyes are favored, and rightfully so, but in the most cliche way possible, throw that out the window and let's see how The Game plays out on Saturday.