On July 30, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles made a move that frustrated a lot of fans at the time. 

Baltimore acquired starting pitcher Trevor Rogers from the Miami Marlins, in exchange for prospects Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. 

Unfortunately for Baltimore, Rogers did not perform well in 2024 where he posted an abysmal 7.11 ERA in only 19.0 innings that season.

Rogers would eventually be disgarded from Baltimore's rotation, shifting focus to the 2025 season.

Trevor Rogers was one of, if not the BIGGEST surprise of the 2025 season. The 28 year-old southpaw had a career year, pitching to a tune of a 1.81 ERA in 109.2 innings. 

Rogers placed in the 97th percentile in pitching run value, and was 94th percentile in fastball and off-speed run value. 

Rogers' 5.5 WAR last season was good for seventh best in the entire MLB while only making 18 starts -- truly absurd numbers. 

A factor to Rogers' success in 2025 was due to his refined pitch mix.

In 2024, Rogers' pitch arsenal consisted of a fastball, sinker, changeup and slider. 

However, Rogers and Baltimore's pitching staff decided to shake things up heading into 2025.

The southpaw saw a 1.7 mph increase to his fastball velocity, thus throwing the pitch 9% more than he did the previous season. Rogers averaged 93.0 mph on his fastball in 2025, which is nothing overwhelming, but his control and command of the strike zone is what made that pitch so effective. Opponents had a .158 batting average in 662 at-bats against Rogers' fastball in 2025. 

Rogers also added a sweeper into his arsenal, which was his BEST pitch in 2025 as opponents had a .065 batting average in 118 at-bats. His sweeper generated a 37.7% whiff rate and 27.0% put away rate in 2025. 

Rogers saw a significant dip in slider usage as it dropped 9% in 2025, but that's due to his sweeper that I expect him to throw more in 2026. 

The big questions remains as to whether or not Rogers can replicate his 2025 success in 2026 -- so can he? 

I believe Rogers will be a very good pitcher for Baltimore next season, but I don't believe that he will have a sub two ERA like he did in 2025. 

Although Rogers' refined pitch mix brought him a lot of success, he still has below league average fastball velocity and gets hit pretty hard. Rogers' 48.4% hard hit rate is in the 3rd percentile amongst starting pitchers. 

My expectation for Rogers in 2026 is to be a mid to low three ERA pitcher, while giving Baltimore some much needed innings and deep outings.