A famous projection model predicts the Philadelphia Phillies' top three hitters for the 2026 MLB season.
The Philadelphia Phillies, even without any major moves this offseason, still have a star-studded lineup heading into the 2026 season.
The big question, though, is who will be the team’s top hitters? Will any of the young players take a step back? Will any of the core members start to show regression?
While no one truly knows the answers to those questions, FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection model offers some insight into what to expect from the Phillies' lineup in 2026.
Here is who the forecast model projects to be the team’s top three hitters by OPS+:
- Bryce Harper - 131 OPS+
- Kyle Schwarber - 126 OPS+
- Trea Turner - 112 OPS+
Sep 25, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (7) reacts with first baseman Bryce Harper (3) after hitting a home run against the Chicago Cubs in the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn ImagesIn terms of which players are included in the top three, there aren’t any surprises here. The trio of Harper, Schwarber, and Turner is far and away the best offensive players on the team. Now, the order in which they came in is slightly interesting.
With Schwarber coming off another dominant offensive season and being an MVP finalist for the National League, it’s easy to assume he would be projected to lead the team in OPS. However, ZiPS is projecting Harper to have a slight bounce-back season.
Harper is projected to have a slightly higher batting average and on-base percentage than Schwarber, which could explain some of the favoritism towards Philadelphia’s first baseman. That said, Schwarber will always be more of a power threat in the lineup over Harper at this point in their careers.
As for Turner, ZiPS still believes that Turner will be an above-average hitter for the Phillies, but is predicting that he’ll take a drop compared to his OPS+ of 121 a year ago. This is something to be concerned about just yet, but definitely something to monitor as the season carries on.
In the end, it’s safe to assume that these three players will be the top offensive threats in Philly’s lineup. The question is, can the supporting cast and pitching staff be good enough to help the Phillies get over their playoff hump, or will the team be heading home early in October once again?
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