The Philadelphia Phillies may be in some trouble.
Heading into the MLB offseason, many expected the Philadelphia Phillies to re-sign Kyle Schwarber and chase a big name like Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger.
But it didn't take long to realize that probably wasn't a realistic outlook.
Yes, the Phillies retained Schwarber on a five-year, $150 million contract, but then they went and signed Adolis Garcia to a one-year deal and called it day on their outfield.
There is still plenty of time left in the winter, but chances are, Philadelphia won't be spending big money in the coming months.
Why?
Well, because the Phillies paid over $56 million in luxury tax penalties following a 2025 campaign in which they ranked third in baseball with a $292 million payroll.
Currently, Philadelphia is $275 million, which places fifth, and based on how much the Phillies had to pay in penalties this year, it seems hard to imagine them doling out more significant dollars for the remainder of the offseason.
The question is whether or not this Philadelphia squad is actually good enough to contend for a World Series title as currently constructed.
The Phillies won 95-plus games each of the last two years, but bowed out in the NLDS both times. They haven't really gotten any better, and their top players are aging.
Philadelphia seems likely to lose key pieces like Ranger Suarez and Harrison Bader to free agency, and it remains to be seen if it will re-sign J.T. Realmuto.
The Phillies are trying to go with a quasi youth movement by placing Justin Crawford in the outfield, and they could potentially rely on top pitching prospect Andrew Painter if they don't replace Suarez and if Zack Wheeler, who is recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome, is sidelined for a large chunk of time.
But will any of that be enough to dethrone the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League?
The Dodgers are the standard by which every contending team must measure itself against now that Los Angeles has captured back-to-back championships, and let's remember that it was the Dodgers who ousted the Phillies in the playoffs this past October.
Philadelphia could always fall back on potential midseason trades, but what if things begin to go haywire long before the trade deadline?
The Phillies should still be one of the better ballclubs in the NL so long as Schwarber continues to rake and the pitching staff remains mostly intact (the rotation is still very impressive even sans Suarez and Wheeler), but it's hard to ignore the problems Rob Thomson's squad could face in 2026.