Even the people who’d benefit most from sounding the alarm aren’t buying it, leaving teams like the Red Sox without an excuse.
On Friday, my friend and colleague Rob Bradford was asked on WEEI in Boston about a potential theory as to why we aren’t seeing as many long-term deals being signed around the big leagues this hot stove season.
“Could you say, though, that [the lack of long-term deals is] a result of the owners knowing a lockout is coming, and they're not willing to get involved in long term deals?” asked Chris Scheim on Boston radio.
“Everyone says that, but I don't necessarily buy it,” said Bradford. “You hear Scott Boras, who knows a lot about this stuff, and lived through this stuff. I don't think that him saying - he actually would have the motivation to say, ‘Oh, yeah, the owners are screwing us because of the lockout.’ He's like, ‘No, I've been through lockouts, or lockout situations. Lockout threatens.’ [That’s not what this is].”
Bradford’s point here is valid. Boras doesn’t just say that, and he’d be more likely to rip the owners for something like trying to be frugal around a potential lockout than say otherwise.
So then why is this potential lockout in baseball the quiet thing no one around the sport wants to say out loud? If the likes of Boras and Bradford are so confident that a lockout isn’t on the way, then where is this constantly coming from?
With Major League Baseball’s current collective bargaining agreement set to expire on December 1, there’s growing chatter that the sport could face a lockout heading into the 2027 season.
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For the uninitiated, a lockout occurs when team owners prevent players from working - effectively halting baseball operations - if a new labor deal isn’t reached. Both sides are already bracing for tough negotiations, with commissioner Rob Manfred and league officials openly discussing the likelihood of a work stoppage once the collective bargaining agreement runs out.
At the heart of the tension is a potential push by owners for a salary cap, a proposal the MLB Players Association fiercely opposes. Additionally, issues like revenue sharing, arbitration rules, and how teams spend on talent are all expected to be flashpoints when talks begin this spring.
With both sides staking out firm positions well before the current agreement elapses, many analysts - and even some voices inside the sport - believe a lockout is more likely than not unless significant compromise happens early.
To think this would impact owners’ desires of wanting to sign up for a fully guaranteed deal for the next five-to-seven years without knowing what the sport is going to look like in a year is more than reasonable rationale.
With all that said, guys that would know (Boras, Bradford) say this consternation is unfounded.
So how do you explain both Boston and the rest of baseball’s inability to get a bevy of long-term deals done, to this point, this offseason with loads of big name talent still available?
For the Red Sox, it’s a reliance on trades that clearly is this franchise’s comfort zone to operate within. Breslow loves making moves for guys with term, and he loves when he can get the other team to continue paying part of their deal. There’s a reason why Boston is one of only two teams in all of baseball to not sign a free agent deal at the major league level.
When a guy like Alex Bregman is still available, and one of your division rivals is hot on his trail trying to bring him aboard, you need to avoid your anti-free agent stance and get the deal done.
If the potential lockout isn’t a factor, then there’s no excuse. Simple as that.
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Tom Carroll is a contributor for Roundtable, with boots-on-the-ground coverage of all things Boston sports. He's a senior digital content producer for WEEI.com, and a native of Lincoln, RI.