With the Phillies in the driver's seat for Schwarber, it might make sense for the Red Sox to pivot given their self-imposed CBT restrictions.
On Monday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan took to his account on Threads to post a thread (no pun intended) of things he’s keeping an eye on as the calendar turns to December.
Here’s how Passan began the thread:
“The calendar turns from November to December in a few hours, and baseball’s hot stove is primed to heat up. As the Winter Meetings start in Orlando a week from today, here are 10 things I’m keeping an eye on.”
Hidden within that thread of 10 items were multiple nuggets about the hot stove season for the Boston Red Sox. Let’s focus on item No. 1:
“Kyle Schwarber: The bellwether of the class. Schwarber’s market is healthy. He’s going to get years, and he’s going to get AAV, and at this point, he might be the likeliest of the big free agents to sign first. Unclear if something gets done before the meetings, but I’d be surprised if they end and he doesn’t have a team. The Phillies remain the favorite, with Boston, Cincinnati, the Mets and others in the mix.”
Yes, “Kyle from Waltham” and the Red Sox are once again being lumped together in a credible report. Albeit as a secondary option, but in the mix nonetheless.
Schwarber was traded to Boston from Washington ahead of their run to the ALCS back in 2021. His impact was felt immediately, batting .291 down the stretch with 7 homers, 18 RBI and an on-base percentage of .435 across 168 plate appearances. That helped power the Red Sox to their first playoff appearance since winning the World Series in 2018, where Schwarber memorably hit a grand slam in game three of the ALCS to give Boston a 2-1 series lead over Houston.
It was short stint, but it was extremely memorable. To bring back a guy like Schwarber would be met with incredible fanfare.
The 32-year-old is projected to receive a long-term, multi-year contract in the range of $132 million to $160 million, with projections varying within that range. A significant number of projections align with what Passan posted on Monday, saying he will return to the Phillies, potentially on a five-year, $132 million deal, or even a 4-year, $128 million deal.
While the expectations of both fans and media previously were that Boston would be looking to sign a couple of big pieces to bolster their offense - Schwarber being one of those potential additions - reporting over the last 24 hours may have just changed that tune for Red Sox Nation.
MassLive’s Sean McAdam reported Sunday that ownership is concerned about exceeding the $244 million Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold in 2026, as this could trigger financial penalties and other operational restrictions.
According to the report, team officials believe crossing that line would result in a “moderate financial loss.” Because MLB teams do not share their financial records, it’s impossible to verify whether that claim reflects actual revenue projections or an internal preference for maintaining a certain level of spending discipline.
Anyone with a brain can tell you that it’s almost certainly the latter.
What can be evaluated, however, is where the Red Sox currently stand.
MLB Trade Rumors’ Nick Deeds projects Boston’s luxury-tax payroll at around $223 million. This puts the Red Sox about $22 million below the first CBT threshold and $41 million below the second.
If ownership limits payroll below the CBT threshold, Boston’s $22 million cushion effectively sets its offseason spending limit, emphasizing that financial restraint will drive decisions.
And that’s where the situation tightens.
Fans hoping for the Red Sox to sign two marquee hitters should adjust their expectations.
With the Red Sox just “in the mix” on Schwarber, it may behoove them to focus all their attention on either Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso, as Passan said in the same thread that both players are waiting for a team to “step to the forefront.”
If Schwarber is already leaning towards Philadelphia, don’t waste your self-imposed limited resources. Go full-force towards one of the two All-Stars on your radar.
...I mean, they should be open to pursuing all three of these guys, but that’s a different conversation for a different day.
Tom Carroll is a contributor for Roundtable, with boots-on-the-ground coverage of all things Boston sports. He's a senior digital content producer for WEEI.com, and a native of Lincoln, RI.