C.J. Stroud leads a hot-and-cold Texans offense into Foxboro against a Patriots’ defense that’s been playing its best football of the season in recent weeks. Where can New England apply pressure to Houston? We’ll take a closer look.
The Houston Texans have been a defense-led team from start to finish this season, but they do present plenty of challenges on the offensive side of the ball.
In an attack led by third-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans can stress a defense with both the pass and the run. Schematically, Houston’s offensive approach can be viewed similarly to New England’s.
Nick Caley, the Texans’ first-year offensive coordinator, comes from the McDaniels tree of offensive coaches. Caley was an assistant under McDaniels in New England from 2015–2022 before moving on to positions with the Rams (2023–24) and Texans.
After the firing of former offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, Texans general manager Nick Caserio — formerly the Director of Player Personnel for New England — brought in Caley to remedy a talent-filled offense’s efficiency.
Caserio, Caley, and McDaniels all share ties to John Carroll University in Cleveland, Ohio, where the Patriots acquired many of their personnel from during the Bill Belichick era.
Now running the Texans’ offense, Caley’s approach mirrors much of what his former colleagues McDaniels and McVay employ: multiple personnel packages, a stable of backs with versatile skillsets, a heavy dosage of under-center and play-action, and a gameplan-specific focus on featuring different players in the passing game.
Stroud, the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, has had moments of profound success under Caley in 2025, but he’s also taken his lumps as he grows within the offense. His consistency, or lack thereof, has been a concern since his sophomore season began, and this year hasn’t shown all that much improvement in that regard.
Stroud finished the 2025 regular season with 3,041 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a career-best 64.2% completion percentage in 14 games. He added 209 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown to that total.
As a team, Houston ranked 14th in passing yards per game (218.1) and 19th in passing touchdowns (24) during the regular season. They ranked 13th in points per game (23.8) and 23rd in third-down conversions (37.2%) on the fifth-most attempts (231).
As traditional statistics would suggest, Houston’s passing offense has been mediocre in 2025, but that’s not due to a lack of talent surrounding Stroud on the outside.
Houston has a stable of perimeter threats, led by breakout star Nico Collins, who led the Texans with 1,117 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 71 receptions (15.5 yards per catch) — all in 15 games. His status for Sunday is in question, however, after he entered concussion protocol during Monday night’s win over Pittsburgh.
Collins projects to line up opposite Christian Gonzalez for the Patriots if he’s active. Gonzalez’s availability is also in question for Sunday, as he entered concussion protocol in New England’s win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. A matchup worth monitoring on the field, and in the days ahead of the game.
If one can go, expect it to be Gonzalez. He was already spotted in a red non-contact jersey at Patriots practice on Wednesday, and if his Instagram story is any indication, “he’s back.”
By Thursday's practice, Gonzalez shed the red non-contact jersey and looked to be a full participant again for the Patriots.
Collins will need to recover on an expedited timeline to be ready for Sunday, and he has one less day to clear each step of the protocol.
If Gonzalez is on the field and Collins isn’t, that’s a huge boost for a New England secondary that will likely be in plenty of one-on-one matchups for most of the game.
Other targets for Stroud in the passing game include tight end Dalton Schultz, who led the Texans with 82 receptions in the regular season; a pair of Iowa State rookie wide receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel; and former Jacksonville Jaguars WR1 Christian Kirk.
Kirk and Noel will split time in the slot and are set to be a handful for Marcus Jones all evening. Kirk was quiet for most of the regular season, but exploded for eight receptions, 144 yards, and one touchdown against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round.
Kirk’s 132 receiving yards against the Steelers’ Brandin Echols (Pittsburgh’s slot corner, equivalent to Jones’ role) were the most against a single defender in coverage in a playoff game since at least 2018, per NextGenStats.
Higgins plays primarily as a boundary receiver, with a skillset that resembles Collins’ as an X. He played 578/742 (77.9%) offensive snaps aligned out wide this season. Higgins was third on the team in targets (68), receptions (41), and receiving yards (525), and tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (6) while spelling Collins during the regular season.
Houston’s lack of efficiency in the passing game stems from similar deficiencies as the Chargers last week: pass protection.
Like Herbert, Stroud has been under siege all season long. Stroud has faced pressure on 36.3% of dropbacks this year and has struggled in those adverse conditions. His completion percentage under pressure drops to 48.6%, his yards per attempt dips all the way to 5.7, and he’s thrown just 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
His struggles against pressure carried over into the Wild Card Round — Stroud was pressured on 34.3% of his dropbacks against Pittsburgh and completed 3-of-9 passes (33.3%) for just 20 yards (2.2 yards per attempt), was sacked three times, fumbled five times, and threw an interception.
Some familiar faces are protecting Stroud this year, with former Patriot Jake Andrews starting at center (23rd/40 centers, per PFF) and Trent Brown starting at right tackle (41st/89 tackles). Both have had their ups and downs this year, along with rookie left tackle Aireontae Ersery (72nd/89).
Key #1: Bring the heat. Stroud has shown a tendency to wilt under pressure this season, and that plays right into the hands of a New England defense that aggressively blitzed a sub-par Los Angeles offensive line on over 45% of dropbacks last week. Expect more of the same this weekend as the Patriots look to speed up Stroud’s internal clock and force mistakes.
The Texans’ rushing offense has also experienced spells of inefficiency. They ranked 22nd in the NFL at 108.9 rushing yards per game and 29th in the league with 3.9 yards per carry while only finding the end zone nine times (t-31st), and held a -0.14 EPA per rush on the season.
Their leading rusher on the year is fourth-round rookie Woody Marks, who came on strong in the second half of the season and finished the year with 703 rushing yards, 208 receiving yards, and five total touchdowns on 4.1 yards per touch.
He’s spelled by longtime Browns running back Nick Chubb, who landed in Houston after suffering a catastrophic knee injury that ended his tenure in Cleveland. Chubb added 506 rushing yards on 4.1 yards per carry and three touchdowns.
It’s clear that the Texans’ offensive line woes have had just as much effect on their ground game as they have in the passing game, but the Wild Card Round showed promise.
Against Pittsburgh, Marks carried the ball 19 times for 112 yards and Chubb added 10 carries for 48 yards. As a team, Houston rushed for 164 yards — their second-highest mark of the year (167 at Baltimore on Oct. 5).
Key #2: Keep the Texans off-schedule. New England’s run defense looked to return to its early-season dominance last week against Los Angeles, holding Kimani Vidal to 11 carries for 31 yards. That will once again be a key this week, as Stroud’s struggles against pressure and blitz looks will be amplified when Houston is in obvious passing situations. Keep the Texans in second-and-long and third-and-long, and allow the front seven to bring exotic pressures that keep Stroud’s eyes on the rush, rather than downfield.
Houston ranked 30th in red zone conversion percentage, scoring touchdowns on just 46.3% of offensive trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
In recent weeks, the Patriots’ red zone defense has come to life. They held the 30th-ranked red zone defense in the league during the regular season (67.5%), but found late success against the Jets in Week 17 (0-2) and the Dolphins in Week 18 (1-3).
That red zone success carried over into the Wild Card Round against Los Angeles, as New England held the Chargers to 0-2 in an impressive defensive outing.
Key #3: Hold ’em to three. With the Texans defense playing the way it has this year (we’ll break that down in our next “What to Watch For”), points will be at a premium for both teams. Holding Houston to three instead of six could be a major determining factor in the game, and New England has shown the DNA to do so over the course of the past month.
Houston’s offense profiles similarly to what the Patriots saw last week with Los Angeles, and New England’s familiarity with the scheme may give them an added advantage in this matchup.
With their top receiver questionable and the Patriots’ top defensive back in the same predicament, both teams have strengths and weaknesses in similar places.
Houston struggled to find the end zone on offense against Pittsburgh in the Wild Card Round, and New England’s defense will look to continue making life difficult for an offense that’s still looking for its identity in the midst of a postseason run.
The Patriots should have a decisive advantage on this side of the ball, but Gonzalez’s potential absence is a wild card.
New England’s defense will need to play with the same violence and aggressiveness that was on display last week if they want to keep pace with arguably the league’s best defense on the Texans’ sideline.
Will the Patriots be able to keep Houston off-balance enough to seize control of the game, or will the Texans’ offense find new life in New England?
Stay tuned for our upcoming look-ahead at the Patriots’ offense vs. the Texans’ defense.
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