The Houston Texans bring their top-rated defense to Foxboro and will look to shut down the New England Patriots’ high-powered offense. Where are the cracks in the Texans defense that Drake Maye and the offense can exploit? Let’s dive in.
It’s no secret that the Houston Texans have one of the best defenses in football this year. Their performance has been the catalyst on Houston’s current 10-game winning streak, and it will arguably be the best defense Drake Maye has encountered to this point in his career.
The Texans’ defensive physicality was on display on Monday night during a dominant showing against the Pittsburgh Steelers, when they held the Steelers to just 6 points and 175 total yards, went 2-of-14 on third down, forced two fumbles (recovering one), and scored two defensive touchdowns on a fumble recovery and a pick-six.
No matter the statistic or metric, the Texans rank at or near the top of the NFL defensively.
Houston ranked first in the NFL, allowing just 277.2 yards per game to opponents during the regular season; first in defensive EPA per play (-0.13); and second in opponents’ points per game (17.4) and per-play success rate (38%).
From their front to deep coverage, the Texans have played at a consistently elite level throughout the 2025 season — and they’ve done so with a simple, yet highly effective schematic approach that has given some of the best Patriots offenses trouble.
Houston is the prototypical “get pressure with the front four” team. One of their greatest strengths is their pass rush, but they’re able to impact the quarterback without sending additional rushers on the blitz.
The Texans ranked 32nd in the NFL in early-down blitz rate and simulated pressure rate this season, yet still generated pressure on nearly 30% of offensive dropbacks.
Instead of bringing additional rushers, Houston specializes in stunts along the defensive line, utilizing them on nearly 21% of dropback passes.
The Texans boast the number-one run-stuffing unit in the NFL, and opponents’ average yards-to-go on second down is eight — also the best mark in the league.
When Houston gets the opposition behind the sticks, they will ramp up pressure, often aligning five defensive linemen along the front or walking up a linebacker to insert into the rush.
On the back end, they don’t disguise at nearly as high a rate as league average, but they haven’t needed to.
They’re variable in their coverage schemes, specializing in quarters when running zone (68.7% of defensive snaps are zone coverages) and a single-high approach when running man (30.4% of snaps). The Texans rank second in the league in defensive EPA per play when running man coverage (-0.11) and seventh when running zone coverage (-0.04).
They’re aggressive, fast, and swarm to the football about as well as any unit league-wide.
But they can be beat.
Who’s Who
Houston’s pass rush is led by ascending superstar Will Anderson Jr. and veteran edge Danielle Hunter. Hunter (15 sacks) and Anderson (12 sacks) typically align extremely wide, creating better angles against offensive tackles and providing space for stunts and twists with interior defensive linemen.
As a pair, their sack and tackle-for-loss numbers are impressive on their own, but their efficiency may be even more telling. Anderson ranks as the second-overall edge defender (92.8) in the NFL among 118 qualified players (per PFF), while also ranking top 10 in both rush defense grade (10th) and pass rush grade (4th). Hunter doesn’t trail far behind, ranking fifth overall as a pass-rush specialist.
Rounding out Houston’s front seven is a pair of hard-hitting, athletic linebackers in Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’o’To’o. Al-Shaair leads the Texans in tackles (103) with To’o’To’o right behind (95), and both show great closing speed to impact the run game and the short-to-intermediate passing attack.
Houston pairs an efficient defensive line with a primarily nickel (five defensive backs) approach on the back end. The Texans align in nickel on nearly 74% of snaps, while they run base personnel close to 24%. That places them on the high end of nickel usage league-wide, and they’ve been just as efficient as anyone in the defensive backfield while running it.
Jalen Pitre aligns as Houston’s nickel, playing primarily in the slot or as a safety rotated down in the box or near the line of scrimmage — taking 88.7% of his snaps in the slot or the box this season. He plays much larger than his 5’11”, 198-pound frame, often filling run gaps or inserting into the rush off the slot. His 74 tackles were fourth-most on the Texans, behind only Al-Shaair, To’o’To’o, and Kamari Lassiter.
Lassiter is also notable in both the pass and run games. He aligns primarily as Houston’s right boundary corner (rarely do they move their corners to opposite sides of the field to “shadow” receivers) and receives a higher volume of targets as teams look to throw away from Derek Stingley Jr., but he shows efficiency in every area.
Another savvy defender, Lassiter totaled seven tackles for loss in the regular season and ranks first among corners in solo tackles (73) and run stops (33) league-wide. He’s tied for third in interceptions (four), eighth in pass breakups (10), and has allowed the 96th-highest passer rating when targeted (75.6).
Stingley Jr. has been one of the NFL’s elite corners since he was drafted third overall by the Texans in 2022. At this point in his career, most teams will look to avoid targeting him with a high volume of passes.
But when they do, he’s been just as impressive. Stingley is tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions, ranks 12th in pass breakups (9), and has allowed the 104th passer rating when targeted (67.4). He allowed 34 receptions on 65 targets (a 52.3% catch rate) on 591 total coverage snaps this season.
From Houston’s defensive line to its defensive backfield, there aren’t many holes. They have talented, athletic players who understand their roles and execute them at a high level.
So where are the holes that New England may be able to exploit?
Keys to Victory
If the Patriots offense wants to put together a better outing this Sunday, much of that pressure will fall on Drake Maye returning to his MVP-caliber form.
Maye struggled to solve the Chargers early in the Wild Card Round, exiting the first half with a career-low 40% completion percentage on 6-of-15 passing for 95 yards and an interception.
As has been the case with Maye all year, he didn’t let the down moments define the rest of the game. He finished the second half 11-of-14 for 173 passing yards and one touchdown.
That kind of grit and determination will be essential again this weekend, as it’s highly likely that Houston’s defense forces Maye into adverse conditions at some point.
While New England’s defense dominated last Sunday, the offense struggled to provide Maye with the time he’s used to in the pocket. Surprisingly, the Chargers played more man coverage than their scouting report would suggest, and paired with pressure, Maye was searching for answers for much of the game.
The Patriots offensive line struggled to handle Los Angeles’ pressure packages, but much like New England, the Chargers aggressively brought additional rushers on the blitz. Los Angeles blitzed 10 times, got pressure 14 times, and sacked Maye five times.
Aside from the sacks, Maye was still effective. He went 4-of-7 for 101 yards (14.4 yards per attempt) with one touchdown and no interceptions when pressured. He scrambled twice, picked up five first downs, and had his best passer-rating split of the night (141.4) in those situations.
In contrast, Houston blitzed just three times against Pittsburgh — relying on the front four to generate pressure on its own.
Key #1: Houston’s four-man rush pressures quarterbacks on around 30% of dropbacks, which ranks just 18th in the league. If New England can stay on schedule and use additional blockers in protection on third down, Maye should have more time to throw. Look for the Patriots to use Thayer Munford or Ben Brown as a sixth offensive lineman in pass protection on obvious passing downs — that was a tendency-breaker thrown in last week against Los Angeles, and it was impactful in giving Maye extra time to scan the field in the second half.
Those disguised coverages and exotic pressure schemes that confused Maye and the Patriots’ offensive line against the Chargers are not Houston’s specialty.
The Texans rank near the bottom of the league in disguising coverages, so what Maye sees pre-snap will often be what he gets post-snap. Oftentimes, that’s a single-high safety look in DeMeco Ryans’ Saleh-esque Cover 3 foundation. Houston runs single-high safety coverages on over 50% of its defensive snaps.
Those looks provide limited safety help for corners covering boundary receivers, giving players like Kayshon Boutte and Kyle Williams space to operate downfield in one-on-one matchups. For the NFL’s top passer on throws 10+ yards, 20+ yards, and 30+ yards downfield, that could be a dangerous proposition.
During the regular season, Houston allowed 47 passing plays of 20+ yards, ranking 16th in the NFL. New England ranked second in the league with 69 passing plays of 20+ yards.
The Patriots had five plays go for 20+ yards against Los Angeles last week, and 12 plays that gained 10+ yards.
When the Texans shift to two-high safeties in Cover 2 or quarters, that should open holes over the middle or on the outside for receivers working underneath the gaps created by boundary receivers running off those deep coverage defenders.
That’s where players like Stefon Diggs, DeMario Douglas, and Hunter Henry can be featured. Douglas had a career day last year against Houston operating on crossing routes over the middle of the field, racking up six receptions for 92 yards and scoring his first career touchdown.
The addition of Diggs to that room for this year’s contest will be critical. He was held to just two catches on five targets for 16 yards against Los Angeles, but he has feasted against zone defenses for most of the season. Diggs’ 40% catch rate on Sunday was well below his league-best 83.3% in the regular season.
Expect Diggs to bounce back in this one as an elite zone-sitting receiver who gives Maye a quick outlet when facing pressure.
Key #2: If you always make a profit, you’ll never go broke. The Texans ranked 32nd in disguising coverages, so Maye will often be able to predict how the defense plans to attack before the snap. This likely won’t be a game where Maye lives on broken plays and extended scrambles, but it may not need to be. Josh McDaniels’ offense thrives against these looks, and Maye’s willingness to take what the defense presents should be prevalent all game long. Everyone should eat for New England to find success in the passing game.
Adding additional blockers in the form of a tackle-eligible was something we saw from the Patriots regularly over the final month of the regular season.
Against Los Angeles, New England saved its limited use of six offensive linemen for the second half, and did so primarily to throw the football. While that may work its way into the gameplan again this week, it wouldn’t be shocking to see six offensive linemen on the field at a much higher rate than the four snaps we saw last weekend.
The Patriots ran the ball on those looks over 70% of the time during the regular season, and in terms of snaps, ranked second in the league in employing that jumbo personnel package.
New England averaged 8.3 yards per carry with six offensive linemen sets during the regular season, and did so on 47 such plays during the final four weeks of the year.
Rhamondre Stevenson has looked to return to prime form after his early-season fumbling woes, and he had a historic performance against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round to show that off. He accrued 128 total yards (53 rushing, 75 receiving) on 13 touches, and joined Dion Lewis (January 13, 2018 vs. Tennessee) and Aaron Hernandez (January 14, 2012 vs. Denver) as the only Patriots players with 50 rushing and receiving yards in a postseason game.
TreVeyon Henderson’s explosive ability could be on display with heavier bodies on the field as well. Henderson has also become much more reliable in pass protection as the season has progressed, highlighted by a blitz pickup on Maye’s fourth-quarter touchdown pass to Henry against the Chargers.
The reliability of both backs in those roles led to a new wrinkle from McDaniels’ offense, as the Patriots ran a much higher percentage of 22 personnel (two running backs, two tight ends) against the Chargers and found success in doing so.
Not only did New England use heavier sets to become more multiple against the Chargers, they did so to force more big bodies onto the field. Last week, we detailed Los Angeles’ resistance to using base personnel in favor of dime packages, but the extra meat on New England’s offense forced the Chargers to match later in the game.
The Texans also show an aversion to running base personnel, doing so on just 24% of defensive snaps during the regular season.
When the Patriots run onto the field in 22 or 13 personnel, expect them to do so in part to force Houston to match with more base. Last week, New England spread the field more often than not on those looks, flanking fullback Jack Westover out wide as a boundary receiver while having Henry and Austin Hooper act more as Z receivers or in the slot.
That puts stress on bigger, less athletic defenders to cover and make plays in space, and it provides an advantage for Patriots receivers looking to find soft spots in zone or make plays after the catch.
If the Texans refuse to match personnel, then New England should be able to line up under center and run the ball at smaller defenders coming down into the box to make plays.
Key #3: Big dogs come out in January. Against a Houston defense that has the highest run-stop rating in the league and ranks ninth in explosive runs allowed (eight), additional meat on the field will help get a Patriots run game going that ranked third in the NFL with 16 carries of 20+ yards during the regular season. After showing a tendency to pass from heavier personnel packages last week, the Patriots can be multiple with the run and pass looks thrown at the Texans’ defense in this one, which should boost efficiency in both areas.
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Houston’s defense is one of the league’s best in nearly every statistical measure and shapes up to be the best Maye has faced to this point in his career, but it will present opportunities for the Patriots to take advantage of.
New England’s multiple personnel packages, paired with Maye’s ability to decipher coverage structures and get the ball to the right spot, will be key indicators of success in this game.
From there, it’ll be on the Patriots’ playmakers to produce with the same efficiency they showed throughout the regular season — and for the offensive line to give Maye enough time to pick his spots against a stingy Texans unit.
Will New England’s offense continue to showcase its explosiveness in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, or will Houston neutralize an inexperienced Patriots offense as it ventures into deeper waters in the postseason?
We’ll break down how this one goes postgame, with instant reactions and key takeaways right here on Patriots Roundtable.
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