Keys To Victory: When the New England Patriots are on Defense in Super Bowl LX

On October 21, 2019, the New England Patriots had then-New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold “seeing ghosts” en route to a dominant 33-0 victory.

Darnold finished the game 11-of-32 with 86 yards passing, four interceptions, and a quarterback rating of just 3.6.

Six years later, all the pieces have changed. Darnold is the leader of back-to-back 14-win teams and has led the Seattle Seahawks back to the Super Bowl for the first time since their 28-24 loss at the hands of the Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX.

For Seattle, Super Bowl LX represents an opportunity to expel the demons of Patriots’ past.

But the demons are back.

New England enters Super Bowl LX on the heels of one of the great defensive playoff runs in league history.

In three postseason games, they’ve allowed a total of just 26 points (8.7 points-per-game), created eight takeaways (five interceptions, four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries), racked up 12 sacks, 19 quarterback hits, generated 100 pressures, allowed a passer rating against of just 56.1, and have held opposing running backs to just 2.4 yards-per-carry.

While the Patriots’ regular season success could largely be attributed to their offense, New England’s defense has been the catalyst of their postseason victories.

If the Patriots emerge victorious on Sunday, the script is likely to be the same: the New England defense will re-emerge in the nightmarish thoughts of Darnold and the Seattle offense.

We’ll certainly get to the Patriots’ plan to harass Darnold, but it’s important to first understand that everything Seattle looks to accomplish offensively is predicated on their rushing attack.

Kenneth Walker III has been a consistently excellent rusher all season long, as detailed in our earlier Who’s Who? New England Patriots Defense vs. Seattle Seahawks Offense in Super Bowl LX.

For New England, negating the effectiveness of running backs has been a specialty of their three postseason victories.

In the Wild Card Round, they allowed just 30 yards on 12 carries by running backs. In the Divisional Round, it was 31 yards on 18 carries. In the AFC Championship Game, 52 yards on 18 carries.

That accounts for a grand total of 113 on 48 carries (2.4 yards per carry) by opposing running backs, and follows a trend that a healthy Patriots defense began early in the season, when they didn’t allow an opposing running back to eclipse the 50-yard mark in seven consecutive games.

While their season-long numbers took a dip later in the year, their struggles came with the interior duo of Milton Williams and Robert Spillane both sidelined for extended periods of time. With the band back together in the playoffs, we’ve seen a return to their early-season dominance against the run.

Walker is set to be the toughest challenge yet for a defense that prides itself on making offenses one dimensional. And unlike New England’s previous opponents, the Seahawks are unlikely to stray away from the running game at the first sign of trouble.

In Seattle’s 41-6 Divisional Round victory over San Francisco, Walker himself carried the ball more times than Darnold threw (19 carries to 17 passes), and made the most of his opportunities, gaining 116 yards rushing and finding the end zone three times.

He followed that up with another trip to the end zone in the NFC Championship, gaining 62 yards rushing on 19 carries and added 49 yards receiving on four catches in the Seahawks’ 31-27 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

With spell rusher Zach Charbonnet sidelined with a torn ACL, the Patriots are likely to see an even heavier dosage of Walker in Super Bowl LX, and will need to continue their excellent play against opposing running backs to handicap the Seahawks’ offensive approach.

Key #1: Slow Walker and the rushing attack. Seattle leads the league in rushing attempts — running on over 47% of their offensive snaps — and over 27% of their passes come off of play-action. Walker will be the key to everything they want to do when they have the football, and New England knows that.

With the Seahawks’ interior offensive line an area of weakness, the Patriots’ front seven will be looking to control the point of attack and fill any and all gaps that Walker will be looking to spring from.

Aside from the usual suspects in Spillane and Williams, New England has benefited from emerging defensive tackle depth in Khyiris Tonga and Cory Durden, and bone-crushing hits from linebacker Christian Ellis as key cogs against the run this postseason.

They’ll all need to be at their best on Sunday to keep Seattle off-schedule offensively.

Seattle ranks first in the NFL in third down conversion rate on attempts from 3-6 yards, but that standing drops all the way to 30th when they're backed up in 3rd-and-7-plus situations. 

In order to enable their pressure packages to tee-off, the Pats will need to be situationally sound on first and second down to keep the Seahawks behind-the-chains.

The Patriots’ defensive front won’t just be key in stopping the run; they’ll also be a major component in slowing Seattle’s passing attack.

When New England had Darnold seeing ghosts six years ago, it was a mix of exotic blitzes and simulated pressures that constantly changed the pre-and-post-snap picture for Darnold and forced him into a litany of mistakes.

During their playoff run this year, that same aggressive mentality has been the engine that’s driven the bus of the Patriots’ defensive performance.

Through three postseason games, New England has blitzed on 43.1% of their total defensive snaps. They’ve been coming from everywhere — linebackers, safeties, and corners have all been involved in the pressure package — and they’ve threatened from all angles.

In their playoff victories, the Patriots have generated pressure 69 times on 133 total quarterback dropbacks (51.9%), and opposing quarterbacks are a combined 18-of-48 (37.5% completion percentage) with 226 yards (4.7 yards per attempt) with no touchdowns, three interceptions, 12 sacks, and a passer rating of 31.2.

New England has mixed their looks up frequently — walking additional rushers into gaps on the line of scrimmage or tight into the box to show pressure pre-snap, then dropping those rushers into coverage and bringing blitzers elsewhere, simulating pressure from one side and attacking the offense’s weak points from an alternative location. They’ve run defensive line games or stunts at the highest rate in the NFL this postseason, forcing the offensive line to pass off blocks and communicate post-snap with additional rushers joining the party soon thereafter.

That’s been the key to the gaudy pressure numbers they’ve put up, and they’ll be incentivized to continue that against Darnold and a Seattle offensive line that’s allowing pressure on 40.7% of dropbacks through two postseason games.

We’ve already detailed Seattle’s weakness along the interior offensive line, and that’s led to Darnold being pressured on 34.9% of dropbacks through the regular season and postseason. On those plays when he’s pressured, Darnold is 84-of-163 (51.5% completion percentage) with 1,027 passing yards (6.3 yards per attempt), 14 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 32 sacks, and a passer rating of 79.5.

When blitzed, Darnold has completed 118-of-190 passes (62.1%) with 1,653 yards (8.7 yards per attempt), 12 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 11 sacks, and a passer rating of 93.6. He ranked just 14th versus the blitz overall during the regular season, throwing an interception at nearly a 5% rate.

That’s reared its head in critical situations for the Seahawks during the season. While their scoring numbers and overall statistics place them up there with the best in the league, Seattle ranks just 21st in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage (54.2%) and 16th on third down conversion percentage (39.8%).

In those situations, Darnold’s time to throw is around 3.88 seconds — by far his highest mark when comparing his splits, and much longer than the NFL average. He holds the ball, and that leads to pressure from the defense’s front seven. Oftentimes, they get home.

Key #2: Big dogs come out in February. The Patriots’ defensive statement through three playoff wins has been built on a variety of exotic pressure packages that have created turnovers and rendered opposing quarterbacks ineffective for large portions of games.

That’s once again a key to victory against Darnold, who still hasn’t seemed to fully shake the ghosts’ presence. He’s 0-4 against New England in his career, being outscored 123-23 in games against the Patriots.

In long down-and-distance scenarios and at critical junctures of the game, look for New England to continue bringing the heat at Darnold on Sunday. Seattle ranks just 20th in the NFL in average net yards per attempt when defensive lines stunt, and third when they don’t. The Patriots’ defensive line uses stunts at the second-highest rate in the NFL (25.0%).

Expect a repeat performance from Milton Williams, as well. In last year’s Super Bowl, Williams broke out with four pressures, two sacks, two hurries, and a forced fumble in the Philadelphia Eagles’ 40-22 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

That earned him a big payday in Foxboro, and a trip back to the Super Bowl. This year, he’ll be aligned directly over the biggest crack in the Seahawks’ armor — and looking to wreak havoc once again. Through the Patriots’ playoff run, he’s generated 17 pressures, two sacks, two quarterback hits, and 13 hurries.

Christian Barmore (15) and Williams (14) both rank top-five among defensive tackles in quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds), while Bradford (16, third most among right guards) and Sundell (10, eighth most among centers) struggle with quick interior pass rushers. Williams (6) and K’Lavon Chaisson (6) are tied for the most quick pressures in the playoffs.

The interior of the New England defensive line is their biggest strength-on-weakness advantage in the game, and will be an X-factor for the Patriots’ pass rush in the Super Bowl.

Seattle’s greatest offensive weapon is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has carried his regular season success over into the playoffs. Through two games, Smith-Njigba has caught 13-of-16 targets (81.3% catch rate) for 172 yards (13.2 yards per catch) and two touchdowns in wins over the 49ers and Rams.

Darnold’s amassed a passer rating of 151.0 when targeting Smith-Njigba this postseason.

In the NFC Championship Game, Smith-Njigba became the first receiver since Julio Jones (2012) with 10-plus receptions, 150-plus yards, and a receiving touchdown in a Conference Championship Game.

As for New England, they have the talent and have shown the ability to neutralize number-one receivers all postseason long — and that starts with star corner Christian Gonzalez.

Through three playoff wins, Gonzalez has allowed just 10 catches on 25 targets (40.0% catch rate) for 125 yards (12.5 yards per catch), no touchdowns, and added three pass breakups and an interception with an opposing passer rating of just 39.6.

For context: a quarterback receives a passer rating of 39.6 when they throw every pass into the third row of the bleachers… so essentially, you’re just about as well off doing that than targeting Gonzalez this postseason.

Take away the one 54-yard gain early in Denver, and the numbers look even more one-sided: 10-of-24, 71 yards (2.9 yards per catch), no touchdowns, one interception, and three pass breakups.

As games have progressed, Gonzalez has gotten even better — he’s been targeted eight times in the fourth quarter this postseason — he’s allowed just two catches, 12 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and an opposing passer rating of 0.0.

But for the Patriots, Gonzalez isn’t their only card to play in coverage.

While Gonzalez aligns to the boundary, where he’s sure to see a load of Smith-Njigba — six targets, six receptions, and 105 receiving yards while aligned there against Los Angeles in the NFC Championship Game — Carlton Davis III mans the wide side of the field for New England’s secondary.

He’s been nearly as good in the playoffs.

In the playoffs, Davis has been targeted 14 times, allowing seven receptions (50.0% catch rate), 61 yards (8.7 yards per reception), and no touchdowns with two interceptions, three pass breakups, and an opposing passer rating of 22.3.

Davis’ only downfall has been his tendency to draw flags (four penalties in the playoffs), but at large, Mike Vrabel and the rest of the Patriots coaching staff seem content with his physicality and production amidst some over-zealous reps.

With the threat of Smith-Njigba’s versatility and Rashid Shaheed’s speed, it’ll be up to nickel Marcus Jones and safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson to plug any additional gaps in coverage.

Each has shown flashes of greatness in the postseason.

Jones has made an impact all over the field — tallying 10 total tackles, two pressures, one sack, one hurry and four run stops while playing near the line of scrimmage, and allowing just 13 catches on 21 targets (61.9% catch rate) with 115 yards (8.8 yards per catch), one touchdown, one interception (returned for a touchdown), three pass breakups, and an opposing passer rating of 72.5 when operating as the team’s slot corner.

Woodson — a fourth-round rookie out of Cal — led all Patriots in defensive snaps during the regular season and has been PFF’s highest-graded New England defender (90.5) in the playoffs, followed by Davis (84.4), Gonzalez (82.9), and Milton Williams (81.7).

Hawkins has led the defense in snaps (193) during the playoffs, and has been involved in the pressure package with four hurries as an additional blitzer.

Key #3: Neutralize Smith-Njigba. That’ll be a group effort for the Patriots in coverage, and thus far, they’ve been excellent at blanketing star receivers in the playoffs.

Gonzalez and Davis rank as the league’s best corner duo this postseason, and that’s enabled Vrabel and Zak Kuhr to scheme the interior of the New England defense much more creatively.

Jones, Woodson, and Hawkins will all rotate to different positions in coverage, with New England showing a multitude of pressure looks with those three and the linebackers underneath.

By spinning the dial on Darnold, they'll slow his processing post-snap — giving time for the rush to get home and tempting him to force the ball into tight windows. Darnold's 20 giveaways this season (14 interceptions, 11 fumbles, six fumbles lost) led the NFL.

He's only the third quarterback since 1991 to make the Super Bowl after leading the NFL in giveaways.

Stopping Smith-Njigba starts with constantly changing the picture for Darnold in coverage over the middle of the field, and ends with Gonzalez and Davis continuing their excellence at the catch point.

With the talent he brings to the table, Smith-Njigba is likely to make some plays over the course of the game. But for the Patriots, they’ll lean on a coverage team that’s gotten stronger as each game this postseason has gone along. They’ve been at their best late in games, and they’ll likely need to play at or above that level consistently come Sunday.

Now that we’ve taken a look at when the Patriots are on the defensive side of the ball, we’ll flip sides and preview everything you need to be on the lookout for when New England’s offense lines up across from another top-ranked defense in Seattle.

We’ll dive deeper into who’s who for the Seahawks’ defense and keys to a Patriots victory on offense in the coming days.

All of that and much more to come on Patriots Roundtable as we inch closer to Super Bowl LX.

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Related Articles:

- Who’s Who? New England Patriots Offense vs. Seattle Seahawks Defense in Super Bowl LX

- Who’s Who? New England Patriots Defense vs. Seattle Seahawks Offense in Super Bowl LX

- What a Super Bowl LX Berth Means For the 2025 New England Patriots

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