Drake Maye and the explosive New England Patriots’ offense enter hostile territory to face off against one of the NFL’s most aggressive defenses in Denver.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Drake Maye is about to face one of the best defenses of his career.
In the Wild Card Round, it was the Los Angeles Chargers’ fifth-overall ranked defense that Maye and the Patriots overcame. In the Divisional Round, it was the Houston Texans’ first-overall ranked defense.
Now, Maye and the Patriots’ offense turn their attention toward Mile High and the Denver Broncos’ defense—an aggressive, ball-hawking unit that ranked as the second-overall defense in the NFL this year.
In the AFC Championship Game, Maye will look to accomplish something no other quarterback has done before: defeat three top-five defenses in the same postseason. He’ll need to do exactly that if New England is going to secure a spot in Super Bowl LX.
How will the Patriots look to attack Denver’s defense on Sunday? Let’s take a closer look.
Who’s Who
Denver’s defense is anchored by an elite pass rush, headlined by star edge rusher Nik Bonitto, who finished the season with a career-best 14.0 sacks. Bonitto ranked second in the NFL during the regular season with a pressure percentage of 20.2% and generated 80 quarterback pressures on the season. He’ll be the next rusher to align over Will Campbell in the postseason.
Jonathon Cooper plays the opposite edge, generally lined up over the left side of the defense (aligned as the left edge on 86.8% of snaps so far this season, and all 48 snaps in the playoffs). Cooper racked up 10 sacks, eight quarterback hits, and 33 hurries on the season while lined up across from Bonitto.
The Broncos’ front four is rounded out by Boston College’s own Zach Allen (team-high 47 quarterback hits and 7.0 sacks, named AP All-Pro First Team) and Josh Franklin-Myers (7.5 sacks)—both of whom can generate pressure at a high rate from the interior.
D.J. Jones will also enter the game in five-down sets as an elite run-stopper, ranked 7th of 130 qualified defensive interior linemen per PFF and accruing 27 run stops on the year.
With high-level talent all across the front, Denver ranked number one in the league in sacks (68), quarterback pressures (213), quarterback hits (80), and quarterback hit percentage (13.5%). They ranked second in pressure percentage (30.5%), trailing only the Dallas Cowboys (31.2%).
Their NFL-best 68 sacks ranked 11 ahead of the second-place Atlanta Falcons (57).
Unlike the Texans, the Broncos aren’t shy about bringing additional bodies into the rush—and they do it in a variety of ways. Denver ranked third in the league with 199 blitz plays and sixth in the NFL in blitz percentage (28.5%).
The trio of linebackers Alex Singleton (team-high 135 tackles), Dre Greenlaw (43 tackles in eight games), and safety Talanoa Hufanga (106 tackles, six tackles for loss) all play an aggressive style that complements the pass rush and shows up in run support.
On the back end, the Broncos have the talent and tenacity to run a highly effective man-to-man scheme. Denver ran man-to-man coverages on over 60% of their defensive snaps this season, and they were emboldened to do so with former Defensive Player of the Year and four-time All-Pro Patrick Surtain II consistently locking down opponents’ top receiving threats.
Surtain allowed a passer rating of just 66.5 when targeted during the regular season, but last week, that was a different story. Josh Allen went 4-of-4 with 35 yards passing (8.8 yards per attempt) and a touchdown when targeting Surtain on Saturday.
Teams will often look to throw away from Surtain, toward corners Riley Moss and Ja’Quan McMillan.
Moss plays the boundary opposite Surtain and has been targeted at an astronomical rate. He’s been thrown at 115 times this season, allowing the third-most receptions (66) among corners league-wide, 815 yards (12.3 yards per catch), six touchdowns, and a passer rating of 93.2.
McMillan has also experienced ups and downs in coverage from his nickel position, allowing 50 catches on 73 targets (68.5% catch percentage), 493 yards (9.9 yards per reception), and two touchdowns, with a passer rating of 85.0.
Keys to Victory
The Broncos bring an ultra-aggressive defensive attack to the table in Sunday’s matchup, but peel back the layers and there are cracks for the Patriots to exploit.
Much like the criticism of New England throughout the season, Denver benefited from playing the league’s 26th-ranked strength of schedule. Their highest-graded games defensively (per PFF) came against:
- Los Angeles Chargers (Week 18 — with Trey Lance at quarterback)
- New York Jets (Week 6)
- Cincinnati Bengals (Week 4 — with Jake Browning at quarterback)
- Kansas City Chiefs (Week 17 — with Chris Oladokun at quarterback)
- Tennessee Titans (Week 1)
- Las Vegas Raiders (Week 10)
- Houston Texans (Week 9 — C.J. Stroud exited with a concussion in the first quarter)
Against stiffer competition, Denver’s defense is more susceptible to surrendering points.
When facing playoff teams with their starting quarterbacks in the game, the Broncos have allowed an average of 23.2 points-per-game in five contests.
They also gave up 29 in a loss to the Indianapolis Colts when Daniel Jones was still healthy, 26 points to the Washington Commanders with Marcus Mariota at quarterback (a one-point overtime win), and 32 points to the Giants in a late comeback victory (33-32).
Denver feasted against weaker competition throughout the season—considering the talent and coaching they have on that side of the ball, they should.
While the Broncos’ hyper-aggressive approach to pressuring the quarterback and plastering receivers on the back end has been the catalyst in many of their wins this season, it may also be their undoing against Drake Maye and the Patriots.
Maye ranked first in the NFL when blitzed this year, completing 68.4% of his passes, throwing 12 touchdown passes to just one interception, and posting a quarterback rating of 116.0.
With the recent success of opposing pass rushes against New England’s offensive line, Denver will be tempted to lean into the same aggressive blitz packages and man coverage that have defined their defensive identity.
Key #1: Protect the quarterback, protect the football. With a Patriots offensive line that has struggled to contain elite pass rushes paired with Maye’s ball-security issues in the playoffs (six fumbles in two games), the Broncos will once again be looking to bring pressure.
New England has allowed pressure on 30.6% of Maye’s dropbacks in the postseason, but Maye has worked through the complications. Under pressure, he’s completed 5-of-9 passes (55.6% completion percentage) with 109 passing yards (12.1 yards-per-attempt) and one touchdown (no interceptions), posting a passer rating of 135.9. His pressure-to-sack rate in that area is 45.5%: he’s taken 10 sacks while under pressure. His time-to-throw rises to 3.48 seconds, and he’s fumbled five times.
The offensive line needs to protect Maye much better in this game for the Patriots to escape Denver with a win, and Maye needs to take better care of the football. Multiple turnovers against the Broncos’ defense spells disaster, and it must be avoided at all costs on the road.
If New England can maintain possession and eliminate the sack-fumbles, they’ll have space to operate in Denver.
Keeping Maye upright starts with establishing a better tone on the ground early in the game. While Rhamondre Stevenson got going late against Houston, the Patriots’ rushing attack hasn’t played with the consistency we saw late in the regular season, when they averaged over 150 rushing yards per game.
That will be easier said than done against a Broncos unit that ranked second in the NFL in opponent rushing yards-per-game (91.1) during the regular season. But if their recent playoff performance is any indication, there’s hope for New England in that area.
Buffalo rushed for 183 yards on 36 attempts (5.1 yards-per-carry) in Denver’s Divisional Round victory, with James Cook ripping off 117 yards to lead the way. Like the Bills, the Patriots will need to stay committed to making things work on the ground to take some of the offensive load off their quarterback.
Stevenson has been New England’s most effective runner in the postseason and looks as close to his breakout 2022 form as he has in the last three years. He’s led the team in rushing in each of their playoff wins and has been impactful in the passing game as well, adding seven receptions and 86 receiving yards to his 123 rushing yards in the postseason.
He’ll likely be a focal point again, but look for the Patriots to try and extend runs to the perimeter with TreVeyon Henderson this week as well.
Henderson struggled against Houston, finishing with 12 carries for 25 yards (2.1 yards per carry), but he has the explosiveness to break a home run at any point—as evidenced by his four 50+ yard touchdowns in the regular season.
The use of stretch, toss, or outside-zone runs would match Henderson up on corners who’ve struggled in run support. Surtain missed a career-high 16.8% of his tackle attempts on a career-low 37 total tackles, while Moss also missed 12.1% of tackles this season.
This could be a spot for Henderson to break one, if New England stays committed to a balanced attack that features the run game more heavily.
Key #2: Stay committed to the run. Against one of the league’s best units versus rushers—and with some hiccups in their own efficiency in recent weeks—the Patriots may be tempted to abandon the run early.
As Buffalo showed, staying committed to the run can open up gaps later in the game to exploit, likely on the perimeter. Look for more balance between Stevenson and Henderson this week, and don’t rule out Maye as a runner, either—especially on scrambles against man coverage, in the red zone, or on short down-and-distances.
Maye rushed for two touchdowns against Buffalo in the low red zone in Week 15. In the Wild Card win, he set up a field goal with a 37-yard scramble against man coverage at the end of the first half, and later converted a 3rd-and-1 on a speed option with Stevenson trailing to the edge.
With a primarily man-to-man scheme on the back end of the Broncos’ defense, the Patriots will have to scheme open one-on-one opportunities downfield again this week.
Denver is more talented—and more comfortable—playing a high percentage of man coverage than New England’s previous opponents.
While the Broncos specialize in New England’s perceived weakness, Maye and the Patriots offense have continued to improve against those looks.
As defenses have ramped up their man coverage against New England, Maye has shown marked improvement. He finished New England’s Divisional Round victory 8-of-12 with 106 passing yards and three touchdowns against man-to-man defenses.
That cause may also receive a boost with the potential return of Mack Hollins, who is eligible to come back from injured reserve for the first time this week. The big-bodied receiver has shown an extremely large catch radius throughout the season and quickly became a reliable target for Maye off play-action or when the pocket broke down.
With Hollins back on the outside, Stefon Diggs would likely return to more of a true slot role, aligning him on McMillan for much of the game—another favorable matchup for the Patriots.
To avoid long-yardage situations where Denver can play sticky man coverage and let their pass rush tee off, it’ll be important for New England to use players like Hollins—and Hunter Henry’s versatility in the run game—to stay on schedule and set up throws off play-action.
Key #3: Play ahead of the chains. By supporting Maye with a more stable rushing attack and adding additional blockers into the pass-protection scheme, New England must stay on schedule offensively and develop rhythm in the play-action game. The threat of the run and double-moves by receivers will help pass catchers shake free of man coverage and open up larger chunk gains later in the game.
The Patriots have run play-action on 24.7% of Maye’s dropbacks through this point of the season—he’s completed 100-of-134 passes (74.6%) with 1,318 passing yards (9.8 yards per attempt), 11 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 129.5 on those plays (per PFF).
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While much of the focus on Sunday’s matchup may center around Jarrett Stidham and the Patriots defense, New England’s offense will face yet another vaunted unit that can rush the passer and stick to receivers in coverage.
Denver’s schematic approach will be an added challenge for New England to overcome, but the Patriots have shown resilience and opportunism throughout their postseason run.
This matchup shapes up as another gritty performance—one where New England will have to overcome adversity to put points on the scoreboard.
They’ll need to find a way to neutralize a Broncos pass rush that will be looking for any crack to slip through and force turnovers off Maye, and lean on an efficient receiving corps to continue making contested catches look routine when covered tightly.
The Broncos may not have quite the same gaudy numbers as the Texans did entering last week’s Divisional Round game, but New England can be sure they’ll get Denver’s best with a Super Bowl appearance on the line.
Will the Patriots’ offense bounce back against another top-ranked defense? Or will Denver generate takeaways and keep the game within striking distance for their offense?
We’ll be breaking down the game on Patriots Roundtable this weekend.
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