The Ohio State Buckeyes slipped up against Michigan State on Saturday, and they received a grave prediction about their tournament hopes.
Ohio State entered its last seven games of the season needing to go 5-2 to finish the season. The Buckeyes had four ranked opponents on that stretch and three unranked opponents, but still tough ones, remaining on the calendar.
They got that set off to a very bad start with a tough, close loss to the No. 15 Virginia Cavaliers before pounding the No. 24 Wisconsin Badgers, before slipping up against No. 15 Michigan State on Sunday.
Both of their losses in the stretch were by a combined 10 points, and the Buckeyes, to their credit, competed to the very end in each.
Now, as they look forward, their chances of making the tournament are razor-thin.
ESPN's Bracketologist Joe Lunardi identified the teams that are on bubble watch, and the Buckeyes didn't receive a good outlook.
Lunardi ranked every team in one of three categories: Locks, Should be In, and Work to Do. Fairly self-explanatory, while being very easy to know Ohio State's location.
In the Big Ten, the locks are all of the ranked teams from Michigan at the top to Wisconsin towards the bottom. The two teams that he has listed as "should be in" are the Iowa Hawkeyes and the UCLA Bruins.
The final group of "work to do" is a two-team group that is the Indiana Hoosiers and the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Lunardi states this:
Once again, the Buckeyes were unable to build upon their recent win over Wisconsin, falling at Michigan State on Sunday to bring their at-large odds back closer to a coin flip than not. They're a better team than their current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings, but they have been unable to escape the bubble for long stretches, placing in the mid-40s in the national résumé rankings -- right on the cut line of a projected 10-bid league. Ohio State has a case based on overall résumé and schedule strength, but is also 0-9 against Quadrant 1 opponents now. The main issue seems to be a lack of consistent momentum: Including Sunday's defeat, the Buckeyes have alternated wins and losses in 20 of their past 22 games.
Consistent momentum has been the Achilles heel for the Buckeyes this season. They started the season on a six-game win streak, and then the rubber actually hit the road. After their 113-60 victory over Mount St. Mary's on November 25th, their longest win streak is just two games.
Twice this year, they put together a two-game win streak, but other than that, each of their wins has been accompanied by a loss.
The inconsistency has killed the Buckeyes, but they still have a chance.
Although their resume isn't the best in the country, they still have a chance to get into the tournament. With the Big Ten Tournament looming, they have four games remaining that they must go at least 3-1 and likely 4-0 to feel good about their chances.
Athletic Director Ross Bjork publicly commented that the standard in Columbus is not just a tournament appearance, but a long tournament run.
To get there, they need a flawless stretch to finish the year. if they can get that, they will have a good chance of entering the Big Ten Tournament and then hopefully, the Big Dance.