In a surprising twist, Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga is going to (potentially) hit the free agent market. An All-Star in 2024, Imanaga had a complex contract structure which allowed this to happen.

According to Jesse Rogers of ESPN, the Cubs turned down their end of a three-year, $57 million option. Imanaga then turned down his end of a one-year, $15 million option. The Cubs can still put out a qualifying offer for Imanaga of one-year and about $22 million.

If they do, and he accepts, then he'll return to the Cubs. If they don't, he'll become an unrestricted free agent. If they offer him the QO and he signs elsewhere, the signing team would owe the Cubs a draft pick.

Why did this happen? 

Before we look at the possibility of the Jays signing Imanaga, let's examine what happened to him here.

Now 32 years old, Imanaga came to the United States in 2024, going 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA. He struck out 174 batters in 173.1 innings that year.

This season? He went 9-8 while battling a hamstring injury, making 25 starts. He had a 3.73 ERA but the underlying metrics were not as good. He struck out only 117 batters in 144.2 innings.

Per MLBTradeRumors:

From July 25 through the end of the season, Imanaga made 12 starts where he surrendered a 5.17 ERA with a 5.42 FIP across 69 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate actually recovered a bit during this stretch, creeping back up to 23.2%, but he allowed an eye-popping 20 home runs in that stretch. Imanaga has always had trouble with the long ball, and even in his excellent 2024 campaign he allowed the tenth-most homers among qualified starters. This year, his 31 homers allowed were the fourth-most in all of baseball despite him pitching just 144 2/3 frames.

Could the Jays be a fit?

On the surface? Of course. With Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt and Shane Bieber set to be free agents, the team needs starting pitching.

Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Trey Yesavage figure to be in the rotation next season, but the other two spots are up for grabs, which is where Imanaga could come into the mix.

How about the money? 

Well, if the Cubs didn't deem him worthy of a three-year, $57 million deal, you'd have to think the money will be respectable. What does that mean? Two years and $30 million? More than that? Less? Either way, it should be affordable, but would the Jays rather spend that money on Imanaga, or work to bring back someone like Bassitt, who figures to be in a similar financial neighborhood?

What about the qualifying offer?

This likely would completely change the game for the Blue Jays. Do they want to surrender a high draft pick in order to get Imanaga for just one or two years? That seems detrimental to them, and seems like a factor that could end up pushing him back to Chicago.

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