{"time":1792878608556,"blocks":[{"id":"pYVJO0pSz9","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The Chicago Cubs have some decisions to make regarding their roster this offseason. "}},{"id":"X7syWU4noV","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The Cubs will need to decide which free-agent pitchers they want to bring back for the 2027 season. Players like Kevin Gausman, Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes, Matthew Boyd, and David Peterson could all depart in free agency."}},{"id":"bObPVPQQ-I","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"What is the likelihood each of those Cubs free-agent starters returns? Let’s dive in and find out. "}},{"id":"UZDJGCFsbT","type":"header","data":{"text":"Kevin Gausman ","level":1,"linkUrl":"","anchor":""}},{"id":"hlGnDRCjCw","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The Cubs made a big move at the trade deadline to acquire Gausman. His numbers with the North Siders, though, were mediocre. The veteran right-hander had a 4.83 ERA and 57 strikeouts over 50 ⅓ innings pitched. "}},{"id":"LJ_Ujvk9Z_","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Although the Cubs would likely welcome back Gausman, there’s a strong chance that he returns to the team that traded him at the deadline. Mitch Bannon of The Athletic recently reported that the 35-year-old wants to return to Toronto. "}},{"id":"CDh-tSz1Md","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Likelihood: 20%"}},{"id":"HGP6DIjRTu","type":"header","data":{"text":"Shota Imanaga","level":1,"linkUrl":"","anchor":""}},{"id":"1S-jQbBTLP","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Imanaga put together another solid campaign in 2026. He had a 3.77 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, and 174 strikeouts over 174 ⅓ innings pitched. The southpaw was also the Cubs’ best pitcher down the stretch, with a 2.25 ERA in the final month. "}},{"id":"oyiK_BLhux","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"However, Imanaga might not return to the team. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic recently reported that the writing may be on the wall for the left-hander's return to Chicago. That puts his likelihood of returning low. "}},{"id":"6HIn33IOG0","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Likelihood: 15%"}},{"id":"-7GmTsGcED","type":"header","data":{"text":"Clay Holmes","level":1,"linkUrl":"","anchor":""}},{"id":"bSxwtKS2Ox","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The Cubs and Holmes are really a match made in heaven. Holmes is an extreme groundball pitcher, while Chicago has an elite defense. For a pitcher who ranked in the 99th percentile in groundball rate this past season, there’s appeal for the right-hander to return in 2027. "}},{"id":"A153ypXtK6","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Now it’ll all depend on what Holmes actually commands in free agency. The 33-year-old is not technically a free agent yet, but the expectation is that he will decline his $12 million player option. That will give him the freedom to sign with any team. "}},{"id":"LndkH9qz7Z","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Likelihood: 50%"}},{"id":"B1Km5zXoek","type":"header","data":{"text":"Matthew Boyd ","level":1,"linkUrl":"","anchor":""}},{"id":"3kOcunEav0","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Boyd regressed a bit from his All-Star campaign in 2025. He posted a 3.91 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, and 96 strikeouts over 126 ⅔ innings pitched. The southpaw also gave up four runs across four innings in Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Round. "}},{"id":"5Rzgk40qoP","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"There hasn’t been much talk about whether the Cubs want to bring Boyd back. But he is 35 years old and could get a nice payday after back-to-back solid pitching seasons. "}},{"id":"NIgpg7AMMi","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Likelihood: 35%"}},{"id":"4LSCLe3cfr","type":"header","data":{"text":"David Peterson ","level":1,"linkUrl":"","anchor":""}},{"id":"7TbQIljhtd","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Peterson will command the least amount of money in free agency from this list, which is why there’s a strong possibility that he does return to the team. He’s definitely a pitcher the Cubs should be looking to bring back on a cheap deal. "}},{"id":"5t80Ym2but","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The former All-Star pitcher had a 3.70 ERA and a 1.369 WHIP across 80 ⅓ innings pitched with the Cubs in the back half of the season. Those numbers should play well in that No. 4 rotation spot next year. "}},{"id":"2BwK3rSfuD","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Likelihood: 50%"}}],"version":"2.31.6"}

Likelihood Each Cubs Free Agent Starter Returns