As we think about the Mariners and their payroll situation, there are a slew of M's players set to gain major raises, either through arbitration or extensions.
I wrote a story on Tuesday, imploring the ownership of the Seattle Mariners to feel as gutted as the fans do about what happened in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series on Monday night in Toronto.
If they do feel that way, they will invest in this team and do all they can to limit the chances of that happening again in 2026 and beyond.
If we're going to ask that of ownership, it's fair we understand what kind of payroll situation the M's are looking at in 2026.
First, it should be noted that Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver's money are coming off the books, freeing up about $28 million. Then, the Mariners are likely to see Jorge Polanco hit the market, which would free up about another $8 million. Caleb Ferguson, Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez are headed to the free agent market as well, and the team could free up more money by non-tendering players like Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo, if they wanted. Leody Taveras elected free agency, which saves the Mariners some money also. They paid him about $4 million after picking him up from the Texas Rangers.
All told, the M's probably have roughly $45-50 million coming off the books, and they have probably four or five guaranteed roster spots to fill, with the possibility of more, depending on how they feel about in-house options.
On the surface, the Mariners have a good amount of money to play with heading into a critical offseason, but remember, several M's players are due raises in 2026.
Bryce Miller
Miller will go from the league minimum as a pre-arbitration player to a salary through arbitration. Spotrac projects him to make $2.5 million, which would be a raise of about $1.7 million from this season.
George Kirby
Kirby made $4.3 million this past season, and Spotrac projects him for $6.5 million in 2026, a raise of more than $2 million.
Logan Gilbert
Gilbert made $7.6 million this year, while he's projected at $11.5, a raise of nearly $4 million.
Andres Munoz
Munoz made about $2.7 million this past season, but because of a team option that is certain to be picked up, he'll make $7 million in 2026, a raise of more than $4 million.
Gabe Speier and Matt Brash
Both members of the Mariners bullpen are going to hit arbitration, and both are projected at $1.75 million, a raise of nearly $1 million each.
Cal Raleigh
The key leader on the M's roster made just $2.6 million in 2026. After his record-setting season, he'll be due nearly $13 million in 2026, a raise of about $10 million. He signed an extension right before this campaign.
Luke Raley
Raley is projected about a $1 million raise in arbitration, even after a down year.
Randy Arozarena
Arozarena put up a 25-homer and 30-stolen base season. In that year, he made about $11.3 million. Spotrac projects him at $16 million, a raise of more than $4 million.
All told?
Of that $45-50 million the Mariners have coming off the books? The Mariners have about $29 million of it earmarked for players on the current roster already.
That leaves ownership somewhere in the neighborhood of just $15-20 million to spend in the offseason, if they want to be at the same spending level as 2025.
Maybe they will go above it, and with four or five roster spots to replace, they are going to need to, especially if they want to prevent what happened on Monday night from happening again.
Caveat
There is no salary cap in baseball. The Mariners spent about $191 million in 2025. The competitive balance tax threshold was $241 million, meaning the Mariners were about $50 million short of hitting punishments.
That means, there is more room than I just outlined - if they want to get there.
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