It has been… a grueling offseason to say the least. Spring Training is essentially right around the corner, and it feels—to fans all across the league—like the offseason has barely played out. Many top free agents still remain unsigned, including Alex Bregman, who took Detroit down to the wire last offseason before choosing to sign with Boston.
And while for many teams, the offseason may not be over—the Tigers front office has made it abundantly clear that for them, it likely is. The ask is for fans to trust in their internal development. They believe that the team’s improvements will come from within, rather than as external additions. President of Baseball Operations, Scott Harris, was quoted earlier this offseason as saying, "Just because a lot of the names look the same doesn’t mean the team is the same".
Is he correct? Should fans feel silly for questioning this current roster construction? Perhaps they should. Perhaps their concerns are valid. The only way to prove it one way or the other is to see how the season plays out.
Fangraphs projections are often as close as we can get to predicting how a season will play out before it happens. They can often be quite wrong—which is a good thing—but they can be useful for putting into perspective what the expectations are from players in a given season, based on their performance history.
Below is a list of the Tigers roster and where they rank relative to their position in terms of projected fWAR (Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement).
• Dillon Dingler - 2.2 fWAR (15th among C)
• Spencer Torkelson - 1.2 fWAR (22nd among 1B)
• Gleyber Torres - 2.9 fWAR (7th among 2B)
• Colt Keith - 2.0 fWAR (18th among 2B)
• Zach McKinstry - 0.9 fWAR (43rd among 3B)
• Kevin McGonigle - 1.1 fWAR (38th among SS)
• Javier Baez - 0.4 fWAR (55th among SS)
• Riley Greene - 2.8 fWAR (5th among LF)
• Parker Meadows - 1.3 fWAR (29th among CF)
• Kerry Carpenter - 1.2 fWAR (28th among RF)
Admittedly, this isn’t a perfect representation. Players aren’t always listed in their correct positions in these rankings, some guys being listed in multiple different positions, clogging up the leaderboard. Despite that, it’s still not the most impressive display of projections from Detroit’s offense.
Now, a list of players who are either available still in Free Agency—or have been rumored available in trade talks—and where they rank on these lists.
• Ketel Marte - 4.5 fWAR (1st among 2B)
• Nico Hoerner - 3.5 fWAR (2nd among 2B)
• Alex Bregman - 3.7 fWAR (3rd among 3B)
• Eugenio Suarez - 2.4 fWAR (11th among 3B)
• Bo Bichette - 3.6 fWAR (11th among SS)
• CJ Abrams - 2.9 fWAR (19th among SS)
• Brendan Donovan - 2.8 fWAR (6th among LF)
• Steven Kwan - 2.8 fWAR (7th among LF)
• Jarren Duran - 2.0 fWAR (16th among LF)
• Cody Bellinger - 2.7 fWAR (10th among CF)
• Kyle Tucker - 3.7 fWAR (7th among RF)
• Wilyer Abreu - 1.7 fWAR (17th among RF)
There are a lot of good options on the board, obtainable in a variety of different ways. For this reason, Detroit needs to be sure that their approach (outsmarting the projections), is one that will work. Because if it doesn’t, there really aren’t any excuses to be made. The opportunities to get better were available.
The pitching side of the equation is where the Tigers look better. Their fWAR projections among their starting rotation show to be quite formidable. While it certainly feels as though Detroit could benefit from another starter—preferably a true number 2–their 2026 rotation is actually in decent shape as it stands. Having Tarik Skubal certainly helps that fact.
The truth of the matter is that Detroit is probably good enough to win the AL Central. That’s more a testament to the weakness of the Central than the strength of Detroit. But Detroit could be more aggressive. They could decide to really put themselves among the cream of the crop—win with Tarik Skubal, as they’ve been heard saying.
It’s not enough. This team isn’t built to win a World Series—not yet. They know this. Tarik Skubal will help sell tickets in 2026, and the team will compete in a weak division. That’s enough for team ownership to justify their current payroll.
With the state of their TV deal being so uncertain, Detroit has no intention of fielding a high payroll. Operating at a loss isn’t in the interest of ownership. Owners only tend to do this when their love of the game outweighs their constant drive for profit.
Detroit doesn’t need to be a team that spends in the same way the Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays currently are. That kind of spending, they definitely could not afford. But they could absolutely afford to operate at a larger budget than they’re offering currently. With all the money coming off the books after 2026–and Baez’s contract coming off after 2027–it wouldn’t even be that long at a higher payroll.
It is a choice. It is demonstrated every day in this country, the lack of interest that billionaires take in the concerns and well-being of the people that their products are supposed to serve. Baseball owners are no different.