Perhaps the biggest story in baseball right now is the pending arbitration hearing between the Detroit Tigers and Tarik Skubal. Skubal and the Tigers filed $13 million apart—the largest gap in arbitration history by a wide margin. The gap is arguably as—if not more—important than the filed numbers themselves, as the gap is what sets the midpoint. The midpoint ($25.5 million in this case) is what the arbitration panel will use as a basis in their decision. Though Skubal will only receive either $19 million or $32 million, neither side needs to argue for for justifying that value. Instead, they need to prove that he’s either worth more or less than that midpoint of $25.5 million.

With this knowledge in mind, it’s important to look at some of the context. Arbitration panels are usually using previous arbitration cases and decisions as a frame of reference for new cases. While this will still be true to an extent, Skubal will have a provision (given his five years of service time) that will allow him to compare himself to the entirety of the league’s salaries, rather than just previous arbitration awards. This provision—though how influential it may be is unclear—gives Skubal an edge that can help Scott Boras and him to create a compelling case. So with this in mind, let’s create his argument.

At first glance, David Price’s arbitration record of $19.75 million may seem to serve the argument of the Tigers organization—and they will almost certainly be using it in their argument. However as good as David Price was—and he was very good—he wasn’t quite on the same level as Tarik Skubal currently is upon reaching his final arbitration negotiation. Skubal’s back to back Cy Young awards puts him in relatively unprecedented territory. Jacob DeGrom would have been a great comparison, however he was extended before reaching his final arbitration.

Price’s $19.75 million is a number that Skubal should—quite obviously—be valued higher than. Not only for his current reputation and awards but for the fact that this is an inflationary economy and $19.75 million in 2015 is not equal to $19.75 million in 2026. Plugging Price’s number into the an inflation calculator, the current day value comes out to roughly $26.8 million—a number that sits comfortably above the midpoint that Boras and Skubal need to clear for a winning argument.

The Cy Young award is important. This is how the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) determines who the best pitchers in the entire league are. The previous two seasons, they have determined there has been no better pitcher than Tarik Skubal in the American League. In 2024, that was determined unanimously. In 2025, only four voters picked Garret Crochet—and it’s assumed that two of those votes came from Boston writers.

Skubal’s dominance has been unquestionable. His weaknesses are almost impossible to define without sound nitpicky. Over the last three seasons (2023 he returned late in the year from injury), he made 77 starts. In that time frame, here are his numbers:

• 14.8 bWAR

• 467.2 Innings Pitched

• 2.39 ERA

• 38-13 Record

• 2.39 FIP

• 0.904 WHIP

• 11.0 SO/9

These numbers aren’t just elite—they’re extraordinary. Skubal has been putting up one of the best peaks from a pitcher that MLB has seen in the modern era. His argument is going to be centered around that fact, and this is where league comparisons come into play.

As discussed earlier, Skubal is not bound by using previous arbitration cases as his only means of argument. He’s allowed to use the entire league for reference—and this plays into his favor heavily. Of course he could refer to some of the contracts that have reached over $40 million in yearly value—such as Zack Wheeler and Max Scherzer. That certainly wouldn’t hurt his case. But arguably what may help even more is looking at they pay of pitchers around the league currently, perhaps even one that signed this very offseason.

The Blue Jays secured Dylan Cease to a contract quite early in the offseason. One that will pay him a salary of $35 million in 2026. Now Cease is a good pitcher—but not only does he not have the same pedigree as Tarik Skubal, but he’s coming off a year where he posted a 4.55 ERA across 32 starts. He’s making nearly $10 million more than the midpoint that Skubal has to argue he’s worth more than.

Tyler Glasnow signed an extension with the Dodgers after being traded to LA in the 2023-2024 offseason. He’s scheduled to make $30 million in 2026. The reason this one is important, is because Detroit may try to use Skubal’s injury history against him. For that reason, Boras and Skubal could refer to Tyler Glasnow—a pitcher with only one All-Star appearance and has never pitched more than 134 innings in a season due to injury. They may point out that if that guy is worth that much money despite having only thrown 332.2 innings in his previous five seasons leading up to his extension, then how is Tarik Skubal worth so much less despite throwing 387.1 innings in his previous two seasons alone?

The only way the arbitrators could rule against Skubal is if they fear the precedent this would set. This would be a year-to-year raise unlike any other ever seen in arbitration and could shift future arbitration discussions drastically. Tarik Skubal should win. He deserves to be paid the money he’s requesting and Detroit should respect him as the top reason they’ve managed to be competitive in the previous few seasons. What actually happens wil be interesting to see, and will certainly be a point of discussion come arbitration each year for a long, long time.