One question has dominated all of MLB media for the entirety of the offseason. What are the Tigers going to do with Tarik Skubal?
Most Detroit fans would prefer to see him extended, and reasonably so. He’s the face of the franchise. Fans of teams such as the Mets and Dodgers are hoping he’s suiting up for them come Opening Day. Regardless of the Skubal situation, the Tigers have a rotation problem.
Perhaps the organization feels okay with the state of the rotation for 2026. Should Skubal remain in Detroit, the rotation is shaping up to look something like this:
• Tarik Skubal
• Jack Flaherty
• Casey Mize
• Reese Olson
• Troy Melton
As far as depth the Tigers will also have that is already on their 40-Man Roster:
• Keider Montero
• Drew Anderson
• Sawyer Gipson-Long
• Ty Madden
• Jake Miller
It’s also important to note that Jackson Jobe is expected to return sometime late in the season.
This rotation isn’t terrible at face value. Perhaps the biggest concern is that there is no true number two starter behind Skubal, as Flaherty and Mize have been prone to inconsistencies. However, the issues start to arise upon looking deeper.
Reese Olson, for example, has consistently struggled with injuries—never pitching more than 112 innings in a season so far in his career. His ability to stay healthy will remain a consistent question until he can show a full season of health.
Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize both also have extensive injury histories. Thankfully for Detroit, both managed to stay healthy in 2025, though it makes no guarantees about their health for 2026.
Troy Melton looked fantastic at times down the stretch after making his debut last season. He also had times where he didn’t look so great. While the hope is that he blossoms into a potential front-end starter, he is far from a sure thing. On the surface, his ERA of 2.76 in his 45.2 innings pitched in 2025 looks great. Under the hood, his FIP registered at 4.60 and SO/9 was 7.1–nothing to write home about. As likely as it is that Troy Melton breaks out in 2026, it’s just as likely that he fizzles out and becomes a bullpen arm.
Despite the criticisms, the 2026 rotation really is the least of their problems when it comes to starting pitching. Detroit is set to lose Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize at the conclusion of the 2026 season.
Though it’s likely there will be some additions to change this, here’s how that would leave the 2027 rotation looking:
1. Reese Olson
2. Jackson Jobe
3. Troy Melton
4. Keider Montero
5. Drew Anderson
It’s unlikely any Detroit fan looks at this potential rotation with excitement. Surely—with such an impending drop-off in starting pitching—the Tigers have some exciting young arms in the upper levels of the minor leagues ready to step in. Unfortunately, they do not.
As great as Detroit’s farm system is, it’s extremely hitter dominant. There are some very exciting young arms in the lower levels of the minor leagues, but they are years away still at best. There are some other guys that could be interesting—Jaden Hamm, Andrew Sears, Jake Miller—but none of these are necessarily elite prospects that can be expected to make a push for the front end of the rotation. Most, or all of them, could end up being relievers at best.
There’s also no guarantee that Jackson Jobe and Troy Melton are the front-end starters the team hopes they can be. For this reason, the 2027 rotation is currently filled with uncertainties.
Right now, there’s a log jam in the infield for Detroit. Even assuming Gleyber Torres leaves after 2026, there’s simply not enough room for all of:
• Colt Keith
• Kevin McGonigle
• Jace Jung
• Hao-Yu Lee
• Max Anderson
• Trey Sweeney
• Zach McKinstry
• Javier Baez
The current front office for the Tigers seems reluctant to move on from their collection of prospects. At a certain point, however, it becomes necessary to use that excess of prospects to attack weaknesses via the trade market. This is how many teams take the leap from “up and coming” team to a contender.
How Detroit handles the pitching situation is likely going to determine whether or not they are able to become steady contenders year in and year out, or if they are staring down the barrel of yet another rebuild.