Will the Los Angeles Lakers surpass their projected win total?
The Los Angeles Lakers finished fourth in the Western Conference last season, winning 53 games in the regular season and then defeating the Houston Rockets in six games in the first round of the playoffs.
They were swept by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round before undergoing massive changes in the offseason.
Out are LeBron James, Luke Kennard, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton, and Jaxson Hayes.
In are Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Kevon Looney, Jaden Hardy, Ziaire Williams, Matisse Thybulle, and rookie Cameron Carr.
No team underwent a roster overhaul to the extent that the Lakers did, and projections for how they will fare in 2026-27.
Vegas Sets The Line
The win total for the Lakers is at 45.5, which surprised Brian Windhorst and Tim MacMahon on the ESPN Hoop Collective podcast.
The Lakers won 53 games last season, 50 the year before, and 47 in 2023-24. Though they lost LeBron James, they still have Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves and are a deeper team than they were last season.
Their win total projects them to be fifth in the West, though there is only a one-game separation between them and the Houston Rockets.
Keep in mind that win total projections are designed to get people to bet, and this total would put heavy betting on the over. If one big thing goes wrong for them and they end up with 45 wins or fewer, what looks to be a "lock" is now a loser.
One Big Thing Going Wrong
Though the Lakers have added depth and strengthened some previously weak positions, the team is built around Luka Doncic.
If Luka Doncic gets hurt, things could go south quickly for the Lakers.
This is true of many teams that lose their superstar player, but the Lakers' strengths are designed to further highlight the strengths of Luka while also masking his weaknesses. If he's not there to run the offense, it puts more pressure on Austin Reaves, who hasn't proven he can carry the load as a true number one option.
Behind Reaves, the Lakers are filled with guys who fit a certain role, but might not work without the main piece.
If the Lakers can get a health 65+ game season out of Doncic, they should win close to 50 games than they do 40 games.
If Doncic has to miss extended periods of time and plays 60 games or fewer, 45 wins or fewer could easily happen.
