The University of Florida football program has arrived at another crossroads.

Since 2011, this narrative is familiar to Gators fans.

New coach. Up-and-down results. An embarrassing loss or two.  The realization that the program is running in place. Buy out the coach. Find a new one.

Current boss Billy Napier is standing at the cliff's edge now.

In his fourth season, Napier's record is 20-20 — worse than any of his three predecessors and unlikely to improve.

This Saturday night in Death Valley, the Gators begin a schedule that is considered the most difficult in college football: four teams ranked in the top seven in the next two months — starting with No. 3 LSU — and seven ranked programs in all.

If Napier survives that gauntlet, he will be a legend. But the oddsmakers predict more disappointment and that Napier probably will lose his job. It's reasonable to expect that he will become the first Florida football coach to finish his tenure with a losing record since Raymond Wolf, 1946-49.

The expectations at Florida are steep. Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer, with their eight Southeastern Conference championships and three national titles, have been the unreachable gold standard.

And for almost a generation now, Florida football has largely been a second-tier program.

Here is a brief, and hopefully not too painful, review.

Will Muschamp

2011-14

W-L: 28-21, 17-15 in SEC, 1-1 in bowl games.

Final Top 25: once in four years.

Buyout: $6.3 million

The 2012 season was a microcosm of promise and disappointment: 11-2 record, but no trophies.  The Gators beat four teams that would be ranked among the top 12 at year's end. But Florida also would fail to score a touchdown in a loss to rival Georgia.

Muschamp, renowned for his work teaching defenses, never could assemble a reliable offense in Gainesville. When he resigned in 2014, he said: "I was given every opportunity to get it done here, and I simply didn't win enough games. That is the bottom line."

Jim McElwain

2015-17

W-L: 22-12, 16-8 in SEC (two division titles), 1-1 in bowl games

Final Top 25: twice in three years.

Buyout: $7.5 million

McElwain's time began so brightly and then pffft. The Gators were 6-0 to start 2015, then lost quarterback Will Grier to a suspension for taking a performance-enhancing drug in an over-the-counter supplement. Florida won their SEC division but lost their final three games by lopsided scores —  27-2 to archrival FSU, 29-15 to Alabama in the SEC Championship, and 41-7 to Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. McElwain was named SEC Coach of the Year.

2016 followed the same pattern: another division title, but humiliating losses again to the Seminoles and Crimson Tide. Then it all fell apart in 2017. 

The Gators started 3-3. In the week after a 19-17 loss to LSU, McElwain said that he and his family had received death threats but offered no evidence. School officials considered firing him for cause. After a 42-7 loss to Georgia the next weekend, McElwain was gone.

His tenure at Florida was the shortest for a non-interim coach in 80 years.

Dan Mullen

2018-21

W-L: 34-15, 21-14 in SEC (one division title), 2-1 in bowl games

Final Top 25: three times in four years.

Buyout: $12 million

Mullen could coach offense. Alex Smith, Tim Tebow, and Dak Prescott played quarterback for Mullen. His defenses were another story.

His first two Florida teams finished in the top 10 and won New Year's Day bowl games. In Year 3, quarterback Kyle Trask set a school record for touchdown passes, but the Gators lost their final three games while allowing 144 points.

The Gators lost their way in Year 4 and Mullen lost his job. A 3-1 record and No. 10 ranking dissolved in a series of upsets and a blowout against Georgia. 

ESPN wrote: "A year removed from leading Florida to the SEC championship game and playing eventual national champion Alabama as close as anyone, Dan Mullen was fired as the Gators' football coach."

Billy Napier

2022-present

W-L: 20-20, 10-14 in SEC, 1-1 in bowl games

Final Top 25: none in three years.

Buyout: $19.4 million

In fairness, he started in Gainesville with a poor hand, inheriting a Mullen recruiting class that was ranked 59th in the country. But year to year, there has been scant evidence of progress.

His best year in the SEC has been 4-4. None of his teams has finished in the AP Top 25.

A season-ending winning streak in 2024 raised hopes and prompted a top 15 ranking. The tragedy of errors against double-digit underdog South Florida burst the bubble again.

In this week's SEC teleconference, Napier insisted that the Florida program is headed in the right direction: “Everything that’s been built here didn’t all of a sudden just disappear. Okay? We didn’t perform to the best of our ability. The ball didn’t bounce our way on a few things. But there’s been a ton of investment put into the people on our team within the organization. Those things do exist. If you’ve been doing this the right way, you’ve developed some intangibles to prepare for these types of moments.

“Sometimes the game gives you what you need. It gives you exactly what you need. I think teams, there’s a number of examples, this can galvanize your group. I think when adversity hits, you need to elevate. You definitely don’t need to shrink back. So, we’re going to double down on who we are,” Napier said. “And try to go play a brand of football that we all can be proud of.”

It could be his last, best hope. Game time is 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

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