A conversation about Florida State football involving the word “championship” might have been laughable as recently as three weeks ago. Today, the Seminoles have the second-best odds of making the College Football Playoffs among fellow ACC members and the third-best odds of winning the conference championship, according to ESPN’s FPI.

That will happen when you zoom from unranked to No. 7 in the country in the space of three weeks (and only two games).

What seemed like a pretty clear picture of ACC title contenders in the preseason has been largely turned on its head. Georgia Tech upended Clemson last weekend, after Clemson had already suffered a season-opening loss at home against LSU. Miami is running wild with wins over ranked-at-the-time Notre Dame and USF teams. And FSU embarrassed then-No. 8 Alabama 31-17 in the season opener.

Louisville, which is considered by Las Vegas to be a clear 5th favorite in the league, has tamely handled Eastern Kentucky and James Madison. After an Off Week in Week Three, the Cardinals host Bowling Green this weekend. Closing in on a full month of the season, UL has effectively given pollsters, gamblers and opposing coaches almost nothing to work with.

SMU, a surprise ACC contender in 2024, is 2-1, including an overtime loss to Baylor. The Mustangs have the 5th-best chance of reaching the ACC Championship Game, according to FPI.

Between all six of those teams, only one ACC game has even been played – the Ramblin’ Wreck’s 24-21 win over Clemson last weekend.

The result of all the games played is that football fans have learned a great deal about the strength of the conference’s four favorites. However, next to nothing has been decided in the season-long race to advance to – and win – the ACC Championship Game in December.

It bears reminding that the winner of that game earns automatic qualification to the College Football Playoff as a result of the playoff expanding to 12 teams in 2024. It’s a fact that those who watched FSU’s 2023 team get snubbed from the four-team playoff won’t have forgotten.

Both teams that made the ACC title game in 2024 ended up being selected for the playoffs. Winning in Charlotte guarantees a chance at glory. But just getting there may well be enough in a year where both the SEC and Big XII lack multiple contenders.

The next 10 weeks, when ACC play begins in earnest, will decide who gets that chance.

The Road Runs Through… ?

The Seminoles can reasonably expect to be favored in at least all but two conference games this year. The only toss-ups are against Miami in Tallahassee and on the road at Clemson. As the higher-ranked team currently, the No. 4 Hurricanes figure to be slight favorites when that game kicks off on Oct. 4. Despite being on the road, FSU is likely to be favored over currently unranked Clemson on Nov. 8, though plenty will happen between now and then.

Miami and Clemson don’t play each other this year, making each of their games against FSU that much more important to their success. Interestingly, No. 18 Georgia Tech doesn’t play any of the other four contenders: FSU, UM, SMU, or UL. In fact, the Yellow Jackets don’t play a single ACC team all year that is currently ranked, though Clemson was ranked at the time of their win over the Tigers.

That alone makes Tech a favorite to reach the ACC Championship Game, which takes the two teams with the best ACC winning percentage. The question, then, is who they will face.

For Florida State, the cliché is true that it currently holds its destiny in its hands. Win out and you’re in. However, it also appears true that the Seminoles hold the destiny of the entire conference in their hands. FSU can just easily help a conference foe ascend to the top as it can take the throne itself.

College football is an unpredictable game. FSU could easily topple Miami and Clemson while losing head-scratchers against unranked ACC opponents. Assuming wins is folly in this sport. But for a team that has yet to play a single ACC game, its conference title path is remarkably clear.

Current FPI odds:

• To win the ACC Championship Game: Miami 51.2%, GT 15.5%, FSU 11.2%, SMU 5.7%, CU 4.9%, UL 3.3%

• To make the CFB Playoffs: Miami 58.5%, FSU 18.2%, GT 17.6%, SMU 5%, CU 3.9%, UL 3.9%

Current FanDuel odds to win ACC Championship game: Miami +150, GT +370, CU +600, FSU +650, UL +1000, SMU +2000

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