The Red River Rivalry is set to unfold on Saturday. The Texas Longhorns (3-2) enter the game in search of answers, while the Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) have one question: Will starting quarterback John Mateer play?
Mateer's playing status has been the story of the week as he prepares to return from surgery on a thumb injury sustained against the Auburn Tigers. His presence is game-changing and has been all season. It is perhaps the reason the Sooners are still undefeated.
A season ago, the Sooners had a quarterback problem with no solution. Both Jackson Arnold and Michael Hawkins struggled to make the necessary plays to win games as Oklahoma finished the season 6-7 with a bowl loss to the Navy Midshipmen. Fast forward to the present and the Sooners enter the Cotton Bowl as a College Football Playoff contender, while the Longhorns have already suffered two early losses.
Both rivals have taken a dramatic turn, with Texas taking a turn for the worse. The Longhorns entered the 2025 season having reached back-to-back College Football Playoff semifinals and conference title games. Needless to say, many Texas fans did not anticipate a 3-2 start to the year with an inept offense and a good, but vulnerable defense.
Oklahoma has seemingly answered most, if not all, of the questions many had of them a season ago. The Sooners had difficulty keeping quarterbacks upright last season with questionable pass protection. That has not been an issue for them, although the team has struggled in the running game. Add in Heisman hopeful John Mateer and the Sooners are a force with which to be reckoned.
The Oklahoma defense is strong in its own right. It ranks 1st in college football, allowing just 17% success rate on third down conversions. Texas' 33% average on third down does not inspire much confidence. Even should backup quarterback Michael Hawkins plays in place of a recovering Mateer, Oklahoma's dominant defense might be too much for the Longhorns.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning's noticeable improvement against Florida gives some reason for hope. Manning didn't wow anybody statistically with 16 completions, 29 attempts, 263 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He did make some difficult throws under pressure while forced to move more than perhaps he should have to move in the pocket.
Manning made strides, but the task does not get any easier this week against the Oklahoma Sooners. Oklahoma set a school record earlier in the season with 10 sacks in a 24-17 win over the Auburn Tigers. That broke a record the Sooners set against the Longhorns in 2019 with nine sacks against former Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger. Signs point to this matchup being in danger of seeing a similar result after the Longhorns surrendered six sacks against Florida.
Texas receivers are good enough to challenge Oklahoma cornerbacks. Outside of Gentry Williams, it's easy to see Texas pass catchers winning matchups against the Sooner secondary. They just may not have much time to win those matchups.
As usual, Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables should be expected to dial up suffocating pressure and coverage looks. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian will have his hands full moving the ball.
Despite the clear disadvantages Texas has in the matchup, the Longhorns have the ability to rise to the occasion and compete in the game. Texas makes it close, but Oklahoma overwhelms in the end.
Prediction: Oklahoma 28, Texas 20