3 Keys to Victory: How the Green Bay Packers Can Beat the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving Day in the NFL is always a feast for football fans, but this year's NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) and the Detroit Lions (7-4) at Ford Field promises to be a particularly spicy serving of rivalry turkey. The Packers head into the holiday tilt as slight underdogs, with Detroit favored by 2.5 points in a game that could shake up the division standings. A win for Green Bay would mark their first season sweep of the Lions since 2020 and keep them firmly in the hunt for the NFC's top seed. But with both teams boasting top-tier defenses and playoff implications on the line, execution will be everything. The Lions enter Week 13 off a thrilling 34-27 win over the Giants, where their offense clicked into high gear. Meanwhile, the Packers are coming off of a dominant victory against the Vikings—led by a defense that attacked the Vikings O Line constantly and boasts a 23.2% pressure percentage this season (10th in the NFL). To pull off the win and hand Detroit a pre-holiday headache, Green Bay must nail these three keys to victory. Key 1: Stop the Run—Shackle Jahmyr Gibbs Early and Often If there's one player who can turn Ford Field into a house of horrors for the Packers, it's Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs. The explosive third-year back has been a dual-threat nightmare all season, racking up 951 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns through 11 games on a blistering 6.1 yards per carry. But here's the stat that should have Green Bay's front seven salivating: In Detroit's losses this 2025 campaign, Gibbs has been held to 65 rushing yards or fewer. Conversely, in all but one of the Lions' wins, he's exploded for more than 65 yards on the ground—a threshold that correlates directly with Dan Campbell's squad feasting on opponents. Green Bay has the blueprint from their most recent clash. In Week 1 of the season, the Packers stuffed Gibbs for just 9 carries and 19 yards with 0 touchdowns, forcing Detroit into predictable passing situations that led to just 1 interception. With linebacker Quay Walker and edge rusher Micah Parsons leading the charge, the Packers' run defense—ranked seventh in the league at 98.2 yards allowed per game—must swarm at the line. Contain Gibbs, and Jared Goff's play-action magic evaporates. Let him loose, and it's bye-bye to any upset dreams in Detroit. Key 2: Penalties at a Minimum—Discipline Wins Turkey Bowls The NFC North is a penalty-prone division, and the Packers have felt the sting more than most this year. Green Bay ranks in the top 12 league-wide with 73 flags thrown against them for 546 yards through 11 games, including a league-high 9 defensive pass interferences that have gifted opponents cheap first downs. In their last meeting with Detroit, penalties weren't the dagger, but in a tight Thanksgiving affair expected to hinge on field position, even one ill-timed holding call could swing momentum. Head coach Matt LaFleur has harped on discipline all week, emphasizing that the Lions thrive on chaos—Detroit's opportunistic offense has capitalized on 15 opponent penalties for 120 yards in their last three wins alone. In a game where both teams average just 5.2 yards per play on penalties, the team that plays smartest could control the clock and the scoreboard. Green Bay's rising star DB’s like Carrington Valentine know the drill: Hands down, flags down, victory in reach. Key 3: Sustain Drives—Pressure, Pound, and Scheme Smart To counter Detroit's high-octane attack, the Packers can't afford three-and-outs—they need to sustain drives and keep Campbell's offense off the field. This starts with turning the screws on Jared Goff, who has been sacked 23 times this season and shows cracks under interior pressure. The Lions' offensive line, once the league's gold standard, has regressed amid inconsistencies following center Frank Ragnow's post-draft retirement. Through 11 games, Detroit ranks 19th in pass-blocking efficiency, allowing 2.9 sacks per game when blitzed up the middle. Defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt along with the Green Bay edge rushers, Micah Parsons and Rashan Gary must exploit those concerns, aiming for at least three QB hits to disrupt Goff's rhythm and force those signature check-downs. On offense, a solid run game is non-negotiable. Josh Jacobs, nursing a knee contusion and thigh bruise, was limited in practice all week but is expected to suit up and play through the pain. The former Raider has been Green Bay's workhorse with 885 total yards and 11 scores, but if a snap limit looms (he's a game-time decision alongside CB Keisean Nixon), backup Emmanuel Wilson steps up. Wilson has been efficient in spot duty, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and providing the burst to compliment Jordan Love's play-action bootlegs. A balanced ground attack—targeting 140+ team rushing yards—will wear down Detroit's front and open the air for receivers like Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Finally, play-calling on second and third downs will be LaFleur's chess match. The Packers convert just 53.7% of third downs (1st in the NFL), but often stalling in obvious passing spots. Against a Lions secondary that's vulnerable to misdirection, expect creative RPOs and motions to keep Detroit guessing. If Green Bay sustains 10+ play drives, as they did in their three-game win streak earlier this year, the over/under of 49 total points could bust wide open in their clash against the Lions. Final Thought: Time to Carve Up the Lions This Thanksgiving clash isn't just about bragging rights over mashed potatoes—it's a pivotal step toward January football for both squads. The Packers have the defensive chops to neutralize Gibbs and the offensive creativity to out-scheme Detroit. Nail these three keys, and Green Bay could leave Motown with a 8-3-1 record and the division lead in their pocket. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET on FOX—tune in, kick your feet up, and may the best team win.