Arsenal head to Wembley in stronger form and with a nine-point lead over Manchester City in the Premier League, but the Carabao Cup final still offers Pep Guardiola’s side a major chance to reset their season against familiar rivals.
Arsenal and Manchester City meet at Wembley on Sunday for the Carabao Cup final, the first chance at silverware for both teams this season.
It is a final that sees Arsenal arrive with more momentum and City with more urgency. Mikel Arteta’s side have just beaten Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 to reach the Champions League quarter-finals after a 1-1 draw in Germany, and they also remain top of the Premier League by nine points. City, by contrast, drew 1-1 at West Ham before going out of Europe 5-1 on aggregate to Real Madrid, so this final already feels especially important to their run-in.
Form and momentum
Arsenal go into the final on a 14-match unbeaten run in all competitions, with their last defeat coming against Manchester United on January 25. Since then, Arteta’s side have won 11 of those 14 games and drawn three, a sequence that has kept them top of the Premier League, taken them into the Champions League quarter-finals and carried them to Wembley. Across the whole season, Arsenal have lost only three competitive matches, which gives much more weight to the argument that they arrive in stronger shape than City.
The most recent results underline that consistency. Arsenal have beaten Leeds, Chelsea, Tottenham, Brighton and Everton in that unbeaten spell, while also negotiating their Champions League tie against Bayer Leverkusen with a 1-1 draw away from home, followed by a 2-0 win in the second leg. It is not just that they are avoiding defeat. They are stacking up wins across multiple competitions, doing so over a meaningful stretch of the season rather than in a short burst.
Team news
The main Arsenal questions are around Martin Odegaard and Jurrien Timber. Odegaard was ruled out of the first leg against Leverkusen and then missed the second leg as well, while Timber also sat out Tuesday’s win. Arteta said Timber’s issue would be “a matter of days”, which leaves him as a major doubt rather than a confirmed absentee. There is better news elsewhere. Leandro Trossard has been declared fit, Ben White returned to training and started against Leverkusen, and White’s return gives Arteta a ready-made option if Timber does not make it. Mikel Merino remains out with a foot injury.
City’s final injury picture is a little less fixed at this stage of the week, but there were signs of reinforcement against Real Madrid. Ruben Dias and Jeremy Doku both returned to the starting line-up on Tuesday, which is significant ahead of Wembley. Josko Gvardiol has been sidelined since January after surgery, whilst Marc Guehi is also ineligible as he is cup-tied under EFL rules.
Guardiola at least still has plenty of attacking options, with Erling Haaland, Omar Marmoush, Rayan Cherki and Antoine Semenyo all part of a forward group that can change games quickly.
Last five meetings
Recent meetings have swung in Arsenal’s favour. Arteta’s side are unbeaten in the last five against Manchester City, winning two and drawing three. Guardiola’s team have not beaten Arsenal in 90 minutes since the 4-1 league win in April 2023.
Arsenal’s 5-1 victory in this fixture last season was the standout result in that sequence. Still, the wider pattern is just as important: this is no longer a matchup City have routinely controlled, as they once used to.
What else matters at Wembley
There is also the broader context of what this trophy could mean. Arsenal are trying to win the League Cup for the third time and for the first time since 1993, while City are chasing a ninth triumph in the competition.
Arteta said reaching Wembley for the first time since 2020 would give Arsenal a lift for the rest of the season, and that feels accurate. A win would strengthen the sense that this campaign could become a defining one, especially with a crucial match-up with City still to come in the league.
For City, the final offers a different kind of significance. After the Madrid defeat, it is a chance to turn frustration into silverware and to remind everyone that even in a less convincing run, Guardiola’s side remains capable of delivering when the stakes are highest.