After its 3-2 victory at Monaco in the first leg, PSG has a solid chance of qualifying for the Champions League round of 16. But what do the statistics and prediction tools say?

PSG took a serious option toward qualification for the Champions League round of 16 after its 3-2 victory at Monaco on Tuesday night in the first leg of the playoffs. While we will refrain from counting the Monaco chickens before they are hatched, the statistics clearly favor PSG ahead of the return leg scheduled for next Wednesday.

As reported by Opta, since the end of the away goals rule (2021-22), 80% of teams that won the first leg in Champions League knockout stages qualified (41 of 51). That percentage even rises to 92% when considering clubs that won away in the first leg (23 of 25), which was the case for PSG at Monaco.

Opta's AI, which runs 10,000 result simulations, combining multiple statistical and historical factors for each team, even gives PSG a 93.67% chance of emerging victorious from this playoff against AS Monaco.

Another reference in statistical predictions, the specialized account Football Meets Data, is even more optimistic for PSG. While it gave them an 88% chance of advancing before the first leg, it now gives them 96% after their 3-2 first-leg victory.

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