The Houston Texans delivered a huge victory today, defeating the Indianapolis Colts 20-16 in a crucial AFC South showdown. This win, combined with a Jacksonville Jaguars victory, has completely reshaped the AFC South landscape and vaulted the Texans right into the thick of the AFC playoff hunt with five weeks remaining in the 2025 NFL regular season.

Here is a breakdown of where the Texans stand in the division and the broader AFC playoff picture.

The Texans’ 20-16 victory on the road against the Colts moves their record to 7-5 on the season, improving their mark to 5-1 since an 0-3 start. This phenomenal turnaround, coupled with the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) defeating the Tennessee Titans, has created a truly unpredictable race for the division title.

Rank     Team       Record       Status

1      Jaguars        8-4        Tiebreaker Advantage

2     Colts             8-4        Tiebreaker

3     Texans          7-5         1 Game Back

4     Titans             1-11        Eliminated

Jaguars Take Control: With the Colts' loss, the Jaguars (who also won today) jump into the AFC South lead via the conference record tiebreaker over Indianapolis.

Texans are a True Contender: By handing the Colts their fourth loss, the Texans now sit just one game behind both the Jaguars and Colts. Houston has won five of its last six games and is arguably one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Their Week 13 win was especially significant as it came on the road against the division leader with the return of quarterback C.J. Stroud from injury.

The AFC South title will likely be decided by the remaining divisional matchups, with the Colts having two crucial games left against the Jaguars, and both the Colts and Texans still scheduled to face each other again.

Beyond the divisional crown, the Texans are now right in the mix for an AFC Wild Card spot. While the top three division leaders (Patriots, Broncos, and Steelers) are currently well-positioned, the race for the three Wild Card slots is incredibly tight, particularly between the 5-7 seeds.

As of today, the Texans' 7-5 record places them on the outside looking in, but with a strong conference record tiebreaker over other teams in the hunt, they are an immediate threat.

Rank    Team      Record       Status

5    Chargers          7-4        Wild Card Leader

6    Jaguars            8-4        Division Leader

7     Bills                   7-5        Final Wild Card Spot

--  Texans               7-5        Outside Looking In (Tied Record)

8     Chiefs              6-6       One Game Back

9      Ravens            6-6       One Game Back

Tiebreaker Scenario: Should the season end today, the Texans' 7-5 record is tied with the Bills for the final Wild Card spot. The specific tiebreakers (likely Common Games or Conference Record) would determine who holds the final spot, but the point is the Texans are now on equal footing with the teams currently holding a playoff berth.

Playoff Odds Skyrocket: Entering the game, the Texans' playoff odds hovered around 56%. This victory over a division rival will significantly boost those odds, potentially pushing them above 70% as they control their own destiny to a much greater extent.

The road ahead is challenging but presents opportunities for the Texans to prove their legitimacy. The remaining schedule includes matchups against potential playoff teams, which could either solidify their position or knock them out of the race:

The victory over the Colts was a season-defining moment, showing the AFC that the Houston Texans are a formidable threat in December. With C.J. Stroud back under center and a defense playing at an elite level, Houston is now fully entrenched in a dramatic AFC playoff race.