Geno Smith faces a historic Texans defense. Expect a sack-hungry pass rush and a secondary eager for turnovers. Can he survive the onslaught?
As the Houston Texans (9-5) prepare to host the Las Vegas Raiders (2-12), the narrative feels less like a contest and more like an impending defensive clinic. DeMeco Ryans has his unit playing at a historic level, while the Raiders arrive in Houston on the back of an eight-game losing streak and an offense that has redefined "struggling."
If you are Geno Smith, the match-upp is about survival. If you are the Texans' defense, it’s about a feeding frenzy and stacking numbers. Smith will have to worry about the Texans defense running wild like a bull in a red painted porcelain shop.
The Unstoppable Force vs. the Collapsing Object
Statistically, this is the most lopsided matchup of the 2025 season. The Texans’ defense enters Week 16 ranked No. 1 in the NFL in both yards allowed (269.2) and points allowed (16.3 per game). On the flip side, the Raiders’ offense is firmly in the basement, ranking dead last (32nd) in scoring, rushing, and total yardage.
The most glaring mismatch is in the trenches. The Raiders have allowed a league-high 54 sacks this year. Geno Smith, returning from a shoulder injury that sidelined him last week, has been the primary target, going down a staggering 49 times himself. Now he has to face Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, the only duo in the NFL with double-digit sacks each this season. The Texans defense are definitely trying to add sacks and interceptions to Smith’s stat line.
What the Texans Should Expect from Geno Smith
Despite the Raiders' record, Geno Smith remains a veteran who can be dangerous if given a clean pocket—the problem is he hasn't seen one in months. Here is what Houston's secondary and pass rush should anticipate:
The "Jekyll and Hyde" Performance: Smith has 16 touchdowns but also 14 interceptions (tied for second-most in the NFL). He is prone to forced throws when under pressure, which plays right into the hands of All-Pro corner Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre.
The Brock Bowers Security Blanket: If Geno finds a rhythm, it will be through rookie tight end Brock Bowers. Bowers has been the lone bright spot for Las Vegas, leading the team with six receiving touchdowns. Expect the Texans to use Azeez Al-Shaair to bracket Bowers and force Smith to look elsewhere.
The Jeanty Factor: Raiders' rookie sensation Ashton Jeanty is their most versatile weapon. Since the bye week, his involvement in the passing game has skyrocketed. The Texans need to be wary of the "check-down to breakout" play; Jeanty leads all RBs in missed tackles forced on receptions.
The Game Plan: Pressure and Patience
The Texans don’t need to reinvent the wheel. Pete Carroll’s Raiders are playing a "style of D" that Houston recognizes, but the Raiders' offense lacks the identity to counter it.
Houston should expect a heavy dose of short, quick passes designed to protect Geno’s shoulder and negate the pass rush. However, with the Texans’ secondary ranking top-12 in completion percentage allowed, those "safe" throws will turn into contested catches.