The team that performs better on third down will make it to the next round. This is how both teams stacked up during the regular season:
The Texans-Patriots matchup could swing on third-down conversion rates on both sides of the field. The Texans' defense averaged a conversion rate of 34.9, good for an impressive 5th in the league. A unit highlighted by edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who combined for a massive 27 sacks, and All-Pro selection Derek Stingley Jr.
The offensive side of the ball was a completely different story. The offense's 39% conversion rate ranks them below average, at 18th in the league. An issue worsened by the fact that their biggest playmaker on offense, 1000-yard receiver Nico Collins, is in concussion protocol and listed as out. Otherwise, we would have observed a key matchup between him and outstanding Patriots corner Christian Gonzales. Now the question remains, who will have a bigger impact: Gonzales or Stingley Jr., on the other side?
In the season, the Texans averaged 7.3 yards to go on third down, meaning a lack of ability to move the ball on first and second down with any regularity. Converting won't be any easier without Collins. During an otherwise sloppy offensive featuring three turnovers by C.J. Stroud, the offensive unit was helped by converting 10 of 15 third downs. They'll have to do their best to match this kind of third-down efficiency and then get the Patriots in third-and-long on the other end. That way, their defense and edge rushers can hunt Drake Maye. The Texans must get a lead and force MVP finalist Maye to have to drop back and throw every possession. Then Hunter and Anderson Jr. can really get to work.
The Patriots' offense, led by Maye's 72 percent completion rate, finished the season a whopping 6th in third-down conversions at just shy of 43 percent. While their defense wasn't top-five like the Texans', they came in a respectable 10th in stopping opponents on third down. While Stroud doesn't have his number one receiver, Stefon Diggs just completed a great first season in New England, and Stingley Jr. will have his hands full with him for the matchup. The Patriots' running game is also an impressive aspect of their attack. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson combined for 1500 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground for the league's 6th-best rushing attack. On average, they were just under 130 rush yards a game, with Henderson at over 5 yards a carry as well.
It's going to be a clash of worthy titans, with the third conversions of each team being pivotal.