Will there be a spring counteroffensive in Europe's biggest armed conflict since World War II?

Apr 1, 2023 10:41 AM

Kyiv faces a key tactical question: How can the Ukrainian military dislodge Kremlin forces from land they are occupying? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is working hard to keep his troops, and the general public, motivated for a long fight

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Europe's biggest armed conflict since World War IIis poised to enter a new phase in the coming weeks.

With no suggestion of a negotiated end to the 13 months of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, the Ukrainian defense minister said last week that a spring counteroffensive could begin as soon as April.

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Kyiv faces a key tactical question: How can the Ukrainian military dislodge Kremlin forces from land they are occupying? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is working hard to keep his troops, and the general public, motivated for a long fight.

Here's a look at how the fighting has evolved and how the spring campaign might unfold:

How did the war get here?

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 2022, but its attacks fell short of some main targets and lost momentum by July. Ukrainian counteroffensives took back large areas from August through November.

Then the fighting got bogged down in attritional warfare during the bitter winter and into the muddy, early spring thaw.

Now, Kyiv can take advantage of improved weather to seize the battlefield initiative with new batches of Western weapons, including scores of tanks, and fresh troops trained in the West.

But Russian forces are dug in deep, lying in wait behind minefields and along kilometers (miles) of trenches.

How has Russia fared so far?

The war has exposed embarrassing shortcomings in the Kremlin's military prowess.

With no suggestion of a negotiated end to the 13 months of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, the Ukrainian defense minister said last week that a spring counteroffensive could begin as soon as April.

Kyiv faces a key tactical question: How can the Ukrainian military dislodge Kremlin forces from land they are occupying? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is working hard to keep his troops, and the general public, motivated for a long fight.

Here's a look at how the fighting has evolved and how the spring campaign might unfold:

How did the war get here?

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 2022, but its attacks fell short of some main targets and lost momentum by July. Ukrainian counteroffensives took back large areas from August through November.

Then the fighting got bogged down in attritional warfare during the bitter winter and into the muddy, early spring thaw.

Now, Kyiv can take advantage of improved weather to seize the battlefield initiative with new batches of Western weapons, including scores of tanks, and fresh troops trained in the West.

But Russian forces are dug in deep, lying in wait behind minefields and along kilometers (miles) of trenches.

How has Russia fared so far?

The war has exposed embarrassing shortcomings in the Kremlin's military prowess.

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