Generation Z and Bitcoin ($BTC): The Swing State Voters Who Could Decide the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
While the crypto market remains volatile with Bitcoin in the spotlight, there are numerous factors that make a strong case for being bullish Bitcoin from now and heading into 2024. Among the common reasons making headlines making the case for a positive potential trend for crypto currencies led by the Bitcoin (the upcoming Bitcoin halving, numerous spot Bitcoin ETF’s being filed potentially leading to a floodgate of institutional and retail capital, Grayscale’s recent court win over the SEC, the tokenization of money and other asset classes; the list goes on and on), one narrative that is likely to drive Bitcoin’s price and volatility is the upcoming presidential election where crypto is starting to become an election theme. It may turn out that Bitcoin will be “the” election theme that decides the election, but not for the many reasons candidates are giving when throwing their weight behind the king of all crypto currencies. While the reasons being given are credible (bitcoin is a global currency, it is digital gold and a store of value, it’s finite supply and therefore a hedge against money printing and inflation, and a broad hedge against market uncertainty and volatility), perhaps the real reason is simply one of the impending change in voter demographics: the massive addition of Gen-Z to the voting ranks who are turning legal voting age now and leading up to the election. Whatever the multitude of reasons are, expect Bitcoin to continue to make headlines, and its price to be driven by market sentiment. This exclusively sentiment-driven market presents both risks and investment opportunities. But following the right influencers with predictive Bitcoin calls is an impossible task to be done by a human given the millions of messages in social media. Market Prophit is a one-of-a-kind platform that quantitatively and objectively identifies which #CryptoTwitter accounts to follow based solely on the performance of their crypto calls, not based on the popularity of the influencer. To find out who the Top 3 Market Prophits are for $BTC on X, read on.
In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics, the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is poised to be one of the most consequential in recent history. As the nation grapples with economic, social, and technological changes, one demographic stands out as potentially pivotal: Generation Z. This young, diverse, and digitally native generation could very well be the swing state voters determining the next U.S. President. And there's one topic that might sway their vote: Bitcoin.
The Rise of Generation Z
Generation Z, individuals born between 1997 and 2012, is on the cusp of becoming a major electoral force. By 2024, a significant portion of Gen-Z will be of legal voting age, ready to cast their ballots in next year’s election. This generation is the most racially and ethnically diverse in U.S. history. Their unique experiences, values, and perspectives set them apart from previous generations.
Gen-Z and Cryptocurrency: A Natural Affinity
Gen-Z's affinity for technology is well-documented. They've grown up in a world dominated by the internet, smartphones, and social media. It's no surprise, then, that they're also the most crypto-savvy generation. Recent statistics indicate that 55% of Gen-Z in the U.S. own cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin being a popular choice.
For many in Gen-Z, Bitcoin represents more than just a digital asset; it embodies a decentralized future and a break from traditional financial systems. Their understanding and acceptance of Bitcoin could play a pivotal role in how they perceive and evaluate presidential candidates.
Swing States: The Gen-Z Effect
Historically, swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have determined the outcome of U.S. Presidential elections. In 2016, Donald Trump secured his presidency with razor-thin margins in these states. The following total vote counts decided these states: (Michigan: 11,837, Wisconsin: 27,257, Pennsylvania: 68,236), a combined total of just 107,330 votes.
With the influx of Gen-Z voters, these margins could be even narrower in 2024.
Considering the close ties between Gen-Z and Bitcoin, candidates who advocate for crypto-friendly policies could have an edge in these battleground states. Recognizing this, we've already seen Bitcoin become a focal point in the 2024 campaign. Candidates like Robert Kennedy and Vivek Ramaswamy have thrown support behind. Others (if not all) are likely to follow.
The Pro-Bitcoin Stance: A Strategic Move
Given Gen-Z's potential to swing the vote in key states, it's likely that more candidates will adopt a pro-Bitcoin stance. This isn't just about appeasing young voters; it's a strategic move. By supporting Bitcoin, candidates can tap into a broader narrative of financial freedom, decentralization, and innovation — themes that resonate deeply with Gen-Z.
Moreover, the discourse around Bitcoin has evolved. Once a niche topic, it's now being discussed on the presidential debate stage. Candidates are not only advocating for Bitcoin but are also critiquing opponents' views on it, signaling its importance in the electoral conversation.
Analyzing the Voter Stats:
There are approximately 69 MM Gen-Z in the United States. Assuming approximately ⅔ of them become of legal voting age by 2024, that equates to an approximate 52 MM eligible Gen-Z voters. Applying historical statistics of registered voters as a % of the total number of eligible voters of 67%, that equates to 35 MM newly registered Gen-Z voters. Applying the 55% of them who own some form of crypto (Bitcoin being the preferred), that equates to roughly 19 MM voters who might choose to vote with crypto being their key deciding factor of which candidate to vote for. That’s not to say that Gen-Z don’t have other main factors (such as climate change, racial equality, and other important social issues) that will drive their decision for choosing a candidate, but certainly in times of economic uncertainty as well as a large percentage of Gen-Z reporting that that they do not feel financially secure, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that they (unlike other generations) will choose to vote with their wallet, or in the new world, their proverbial “crypto-wallet”. Bitcoin represents a store of value and financial freedom and an opportunity to build lasting wealth since it’s arguably the “hardest” form of money and a “real asset” in a world) where the value and security of fiat money is being questioned amongst the global economic backdrop of high and likely persistently long and sticky inflation. But let’s drill down further into the analysis of swing state voter demographic changes. The table below shows current registered voters in key swing states as well as the number of potential additional Gen-Z voters that might be added to the voter ranks who vote with their wallet (i.e., Crypto owners).
Potential Increase of Registered Voters in Swing States who are Gen-Z and own Crypto.
Swing States that Donald Trump won in the 2016 Election.The potential additional ranks of new voters in swing states are on the order of approximately 10%. And while these numbers might overstate how many of these voters will vote for a pro-Bitcoin candidate as their “main” reason for their choice, one can see that even 10% of these numbers are still larger than the total number of voters that decided the 2016 election in the 3 battleground states. And with the expansion of the number of states that are now considered swing states, it might make even more reason for candidates to get behind Bitcoin since there are more swing states to fight for and orders of magnitude more of potential swing voters in those states. So, while not a foregone conclusion, one perhaps might realize the “real” reason why presidential candidates are starting to throw their support for Bitcoin: votes in Swing States. And once one candidate leans in, so will invariably all others take the same position; they have no choice. And hence why Bitcoin will not only likely be in the top 3 election themes, but it might also be number one which is an additional reason why one might be bullish Bitcoin going into 2024. Whatever the themes might be and how ever they might evolve, one thing is certain, Bitcoin and crypto will dominate the headlines and sentiment will be the key factor that will drive price action and volatility.
So how can investors navigate the headlines, the sentiment, and the resulting price action both for opportunities as well as insights? As social platforms like X dominate the public discourse, X being the open Global Town Hall where prognosticators make crypto predictions, X essentially serves as an open crypto trade/opinion blotter. Market Prophit is a unique platform that analyzes millions of messages and CryptoTweeters and automatically identifies the #SmartMoney on #CrypoTwitter and those X accounts that might be worth following based on a measure of the accuracy and predictiveness of message posters crypto calls. It identifies the top performing X accounts worth following and those accounts are called Market Prophits. Below are the Top 3 Market Prophits for $BTC. Notice that these accounts aren’t “popular” with hundreds of thousands or even millions of followers; they’re just good predictors and are real people sharing their ideas. You can check them out and their stats here:
As the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election approaches, all eyes will be on Generation Z. Their numbers, combined with their proclivity for Bitcoin, could very well sway the outcome in swing states. Candidates recognize this, and as the campaign heats up, we can expect Bitcoin to be not just a digital currency but a defining electoral issue. In the 2024 presidential election, Bitcoin might very well be the new Hope and Change.