The Cowboys eye a top-tier pass-rusher. Unpacking the rumored trade with Cleveland, we analyze the math—and expose the fiction.
FRISCO - Could the Dallas Cowboys engineer the biggest trade of the 2026 NFL Draft? Or are ideas simply being gossiped about by the media because headlines on that subject produce the biggest number of clicks?
The Cowboys have been the centerpiece of one media-made rumor that would lead them up to the No. 3 slot in this draft, where they would presumably select Texas Tech pass-rush star David Bailey.
But it is to be sure a media-made story, and one inflated by "The Telephone Game'' on social media.
No, there is no evidence that "the Cowboys are in discussions with Arizona to trade picks Nos. 12 and 92 to get No. 3.''
And one of the reasons we know that angle is wrong is because the specifics are wrong.
If the Cowboys phoned the Cardinals with that low-ball offer, Arizona would laugh Dallas right off the call.
The Trade Value Chart makes it clear: No. 3 is worth 2,200 points. To match that value, Dallas would have to give up its first three picks, No. 12 (1,200 points), No. 20 (850 points) and No. 92 (132 points).
That idea gained traction, though, because Todd McShay tossed out an idea on his podcast. ... citing "buzz.''
Where do I think the "buzz'' came from? It started with a Bruce Feldman mock draft at The Athletic in which the Cowboys move up to No. 3 overall to select Bailey by giving up picks No. 12 and No. 92.
Again, Feldman should know better than that; the math simply does not work.
But now we are seeing an avalanche of similar ideas, including this one from Cleveland.com that projects the Cowboys sending Nos. 12 and 20 - both of their first-rounders - to the Browns in exchange for picks Nos. 6, 70, and 146.
And along with the avalanche comes more fuzzy math ... because this compensation isn't right, either.
In this scenario, Dallas is getting 1,873 points while giving 2,050. ... meaning this Browns writer is letting Cleveland win the trade by 177 points - the equivalent of a mid-third-round pick.
So, no. Dallas shouldn't do this proposed deal. In the real world, the Cowboys would fairly discuss swapping a package featuring Nos. 12 and 20 (1,873 points) plus a sweetener (a cheap veteran starter?) for Cleveland's Nos. 6 and 39 (2,120 points).
The dismissal of these ideas, by the way, have nothing to do with any "fear to pull the trigger.'' Last month, the Cowboys offered the Las Vegas Raiders a series of monster packages for Maxx Crosby. Maybe, as long as we're on the subject of the Browns, they'll get around to doing the same for Myles Garrett.
Additionally, none of this is a diss of Bailey. Dallas - which recently hosted him in a visit to The Star - recognizes him as a gifted and high-effort prospect who dominated during his time in Lubbock ... and who might be able to do the same in the NFL.
But the price on any Draft Day trade has to be right. And wrong guesses or errant reports are easily sniffed out simply by doing the math.