What tire compounds for this year's grand prix and which are most likely to be used?
What tire strategy teams will use is always a conversation prior to a race, especially with temperature like what is predicted for this weekend in Mexico. The expected air temperature for the race is around 77 degrees Fahrenheit (25C), with the expected track temperature being 115 degrees Fahrenheit (48C). The higher track temperature does make it likely that the soft tire will struggle during the race, but that doesn’t discount them as they have been performing well. There is also a low chance of rain, making it unlikely that we will see the intermediate or wet tires brought out.
2024’s Mexico City Grand Prix was a one stop race for most drivers. The top 11 on the grid used a medium>hard strategy and the five behind them went with the hard>medium strategy. Soft tires weren’t really used aside from a bit at the end of the race. The top three, Carlos Sainz, Lando Norris, and Charles Leclerc, all made their pit stops on laps 30 to 32 out of 71. Max Verstappen (P6) and Lance Stroll (P11) kicked off the pit window for those on mediums by pitting on lap 26 out of 71. Oscar Piastri, who started P17 and ended P8, was on a sort of reverse strategy despite being on the same medium>hard strategy as the top 11. The Australian pitted on lap 39 to switch his medium tires for hard tires. The drivers who did start on hard tires saw no significant advantage and pitted between laps 39 and 49.
This year’s tire compounds are different from last year. Last year the C3 was the hard tire, C4 was the medium, and C5 for the soft. This year they are introducing a bridge in the compounds with C2 being the hard tire, and the C4 and C5 remaining as the medium and soft tire. There was also a compound bridge last weekend at Austin's COTA, where we saw teams and drivers opt to go with a medium>soft strategy as opposed to the medium>hard strategy used in 2024.
The medium>soft strategy also seems to be the way to go for this weekend’s race. The optimum pit window for the medium>soft is around lap 42-48, requiring lots of management on the drivers parts. A medium>hard strategy is also an option as a possible fallback and would bring the window to around laps 26-32. Soft>medium and soft>hard are also options which would have the pit window around laps 20-26, but this seems to be the least likely option.