The Italian leads Russell by 43 points after five rounds, but precedents show that gaps can disappear, Alonso came back from 42 points behind Vettel in 2012, Verstappen recovered 46 points from Leclerc in 2022 and Piastri once had a 104 point lead over the Dutchman before losing the title.
Kimi Antonelli leads the Formula 1 championship with a 43 point advantage over his teammate George Russell after five rounds, but the history of the category shows that gaps can disappear in a matter of races, the Briton's retirement in Canada widened the gap, but the precedents invite caution because in F1 everything can change very quickly.George Russe
One of the clearest examples occurred in 2012, Fernando Alonso (Ferrari) had a 42 point lead over Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull) after round 11, but the German strung together four consecutive wins later in the season and overtook his rival to take the title by just three points in the last race. The previous year, in 2010, Alonso also led Vettel after the first two rounds, but the German came back and was crowned champion in a dramatic finale in Abu Dhabi.
The beginning of the hybrid era in 2014 left another memorable comeback, Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) had a 29 point lead over Lewis Hamilton after round 8, but the Briton reacted in time and ended up taking the championship in the last race, history repeated itself in 2017 when Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari) led Hamilton by 25 points after the sixth round, but the Mercedes driver turned the situation around and was proclaimed champion with two races to spare.
One of the most extreme cases occurred in 2022, Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) had a 46 point lead over Max Verstappen after the third round, but the Dutchman from Red Bull made a spectacular comeback and ended up winning the title with four races to spare. The most striking example of recent years occurred last season, Oscar Piastri (McLaren) had a 104 point lead over Verstappen after round 15, but the Dutch champion staged an extraordinary comeback that put him within reach of the title, although it was ultimately Lando Norris who took the championship by just two points.
If the results pattern of 2025 were repeated, the data indicates that Russell would overtake Antonelli around round 11, the Briton has a history of comebacks in the second half of the season while the Italian suffered a slump during the European tour last year.
In MotoGP there are also precedents of spectacular comebacks, Francesco Bagnaia was 91 points behind Fabio Quartararo in 2022 and ended up winning the title by 17 points, in F1, nothing is decided until the math says otherwise.
