F1 Mexican Grand Prix: Predicting the Start of Sunday's Race

Ferrari looked strong during the practice sessions, with Lewis Hamilton's pole on Saturday confirming the SF-26's pace. But this is a very long run to Turn 1, and the slipstream could actually be a threat to Hamilton.  We saw Max Verstappen use that slipstream to his advantage in two of his five Mexican Grand Prix wins, where he started from third and ended up in first after the first run to Turn 1.

So, we decided to have some fun by conjuring up hypothetical scenarios that we'll possibly see at the start of the 2026 Formula 1 Mexican Grand Prix. Take a look.

Charles Leclerc was ahead of Hamilton from FP1 to FP3, but he fell behind when it mattered most in qualifying. He settled for P3 on the starting grid, which actually isn't a bad place to begin the race. As we just mentioned, Verstappen won two races here while starting from third.

With Hamilton fending off Mercedes' George Russell (who starts in second place), Leclerc could get a clean launch, use the slipstream, attack both drivers, and take the lead after Turn 1. 

Ferrari might just get a 1-2 here. 

Here are the title-clinching scenarios for Kimi Antonelli:

So, if you're Antonelli, why would you risk it all at the start if you have these permutations in your favor? Plus, the 20-year-old Mercedes driver has Verstappen slotted alongside him. If you're almost sure of a championship, you'd want to steer away from a hungry Red Bull.

Plus, Antonelli would want to clinch the championship while making his way to the checkered flag. He wants to finish this race.

After the first two rows, the pack is full of hungry wolves with chips on their shoulders. Verstappen will surely make a move, and so will the reigning World Champion Lando Norris. Then, you have Franco Colapinto in 11th place, who might be feeling desperate to bounce back and risk a move into Turn 1. 

We might get chaos in the opening lap, something that Antonelli wouldn't want to be a part of.

It was a disappointing Saturday for McLaren driver Oscar Piastri, who failed to advance to Q3 for the first time in two years. But this is still a McLaren car that can easily outpace the midfield cars in the long main straight. If Piastri, who starts in 12th, puts on the soft tyres and nails his start, he should be able to get within the Top 10 after the first turn.

It's surely a long straight into Turn 1, but three of the last five winners here started from pole. If Hamilton reacts quickly and gets a good start, he can still maintain the lead, even if he gives a slipstream to Russell or Leclerc.

After all, Hamilton has already won from pole here, when he finished the 2016 Mexican GP first while driving for Mercedes. The seven-time World Champion would be wise to position his car well to defend. 

That is, of course, if he nails his start.