The Briton has 105 wins but none yet with the Scuderia. Analyses indicate that high-downforce circuits are the most propitious. Silverstone is his historic stronghold, although the SF-26's power deficit conditions his chances on fast tracks like Belgium or Monza.
Lewis Hamilton has 105 victories in Formula 1, a record that places him at the very top of history, but there is one fact that the seven-time champion wants to change as soon as possible: he has not yet set foot on the top step of the podium dressed in red. His last triumph dates back to the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix, in his farewell season at Mercedes, after a 2025 without appearing in the top three, Hamilton broke that drought with a third place in China, the question now is where his first victory with Ferrari could come.
Analysts' assessments combine two key factors to answer this question: on one hand, the Briton's history of wins at each circuit, on the other, the technical characteristics of the SF-26 and its expected performance against the dominant Mercedes. The result paints a clear picture: high downforce, slow corner tracks are the Scuderia's great allies.
Hungary emerges as the most propitious scenario, the Hungaroring, where Hamilton has won on eight occasions, punishes brute power and rewards aerodynamic efficiency; there, the deficit of the Ferrari power unit is masked, and the chassis can make the difference. In the same vein are Monaco and Singapore, two urban circuits where traction and aerodynamic downforce are more important than top speed. Barcelona, with eight historic wins for Ferrari, also appears among the most favorable options.
Conversely, circuits where engine power is decisive become a dead end for Hamilton and Ferrari. Spa Francorchamps, paradoxically, the scene of his last triumph with Mercedes, is the most hostile; the long straights of the Ardennes mercilessly punish the SF-26's lower power. Monza, the temple of speed, presents an equally discouraging picture, and in both cases, the estimated deficit of the Italian car against Mercedes widens to limits that are difficult to overcome.
The case of the Miami GP, which takes place this weekend, is particular; Hamilton has never won in Florida, and his results have been modest: three sixth places and an eighth in four editions. The circuit's characteristics, with long straights and high speed zones, do not play to the strengths of the SF-26. The chances, according to analysts, are limited.
The good news for Ferrari fans is that the calendar will soon move to Europe, with Monaco in early June and Barcelona a week later, appearing on the horizon as the first two great real opportunities. There, if the SF-26 confirms its cornering virtues, Hamilton could finally open his victory account with the Scuderia and put an end to a drought that has lasted for almost two years.