The Italian leads the championship after three races with two victories, the average difference in qualifying is just 0.054s. The data is compared to old rivalries: Rosberg-Schumacher, Hamilton-Rosberg, Hamilton-Bottas and Hamilton-Russell.
The start of the 2026 Formula 1 season has left a fascinating internal dynamic at Mercedes, Kimi Antonelli, the 20 year old Italian, leads the drivers' championship after three races, with two wins, to one for George Russell. The German team's solidity at the top of the constructors' table has not prevented attention from focusing on the fight between its two drivers.
To put this duel into perspective, F1 has carried out an exhaustive statistical analysis comparing the Russell-Antonelli duo with all the driver pairings Mercedes has had since its return as a constructor in 2010, the numbers, based on qualifying and race data (excluding atypical sessions), reveal surprising trends.
In the Rosberg-Schumacher era (2010-2012), Nico Rosberg was superior in most indicators, the most striking statistic is the 0.326 second difference in 2011 in favor of Rosberg, the largest gap between teammates in Mercedes' history, in 2012, Schumacher improved his performance, but the German retired at the end of that season.
The Hamilton-Rosberg period (2013-2016) witnessed a much closer fight: Hamilton had better records in qualifying (42 to 36) and in races (44 to 33), the gap in lap time was minimal, especially in 2014 and 2015, Rosberg won the title in 2016, but the numbers favor the Briton overall.
With the arrival of Valtteri Bottas (2017-2021), Hamilton extended his dominance, the Finn only won 10 races in five years, while Hamilton strung together four consecutive titles, the difference in qualifying was overwhelming: 69 to 31 for Hamilton, in races, the advantage was even greater: 74 to 25.
Russell debuted as Hamilton's teammate in 2022, in their first year together, the average difference was just 0.009 seconds, the smallest recorded by Mercedes, in 2024, Russell gained momentum and surpassed Hamilton in most parameters, over three seasons, Russell won the qualifying battle 39 to 29, while in races they tied 34 to 34.
Now, Antonelli has taken a step forward in his second season, in 2025, Russell was clearly superior with an average difference of 0.293 seconds, the largest since Rosberg-Schumacher 2011, but so far in 2026, Antonelli has been faster in lap time by a margin of just 0.054 seconds, and his average qualifying position (1.33) is better than Russell's (1.67).
The Italian has outperformed his teammate in five of the last eight races, including the two wins of 2026 and good results in Mexico, Brazil and Qatar last season.
The question now is whether Antonelli can maintain this pace and become Mercedes' undisputed leader, or whether Russell will regain the advantage for the rest of the championship.