Lando Norris has it easiest out of the three drivers statistically. Norris currently sits 12 points ahead of Max Verstappen in second and 16 points ahead of his teammate, Oscar Piastri, in third. As long as Norris finishes ahead of the other two, he will win the championship.

If Norris finishes the race on the podium, he will clinch the World Drivers Championship as that will keep him ahead of Verstappen regardless of where he finishes. Norris will also clinch if he finishes 4th-7th place as long as Verstappen and Piastri finish second or lower. If Norris finishes 8th or lower, he would need Verstappen to finish 4th or lower and Piastri to finish 3rd or lower.

If Max Verstappen wins the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, he would need Lando Norris to finish 4th or lower to win the championship. Verstappen winning and Norris receiving 4th place puts Verstappen at 421 points and Norris at 420, giving Max the win by just one point.

If Verstappen gets second place, Norris would need to finish 8th or lower and Piastri 3rd or lower. This scenario puts Verstappen at 414 points, Norris at 412 points, and Piastri at 407 points.

The last scenario in which Verstappen could win is if he finishes third, Norris finishes 9th or lower, and Piastri finishes second or lower. Here, Verstappen would finish with 411 points, Norris with 410 points, and Piastri with 410 points. In the case there is a tie in points they would look at who has won more races, which they are all currently tied with 7, then would look at the number of second place finishes and so on.

Being third in the championship means Oscar Piastri will have the hardest time trying to fight for the title, with there being only two scenarios in which he can win. The first scenario is if Piastri finishes the race in first place, Norris finishes 6th or lower, and Verstappen finishes in any position. This would put Piastri at 417 points, Norris at 416 points, and Verstappen at 414 points (assuming he finishes second). 

The other scenario will play out if Piastri finishes second in the race, Norris finishes 10th or lower, and Verstappen finishes 4th or lower. Here, Piastri would finish with 410 points, Norris would have 409 points, and Verstappen would have 408.

In my opinion, I don’t think McLaren is willing to risk putting one driver over another even if it means losing them the championship. Zak Brown, the McLaren CEO, even said he would rather let Verstappen win then prioritize a driver and I think that that is going to cost them the championship.

We saw this play out just last week at Qatar when McLaren chose not to pit their drivers under the safety car while every other team did. They didn’t want to risk the double stack and have Norris lose out and they wouldn’t split their strategy and pit one driver and not the other because that, again, puts one driver at a disadvantage, and that is what lost them the race. If McLaren just prioritized a driver then Verstappen would not have gotten second place from Piastri last weekend.

Verstappen even acknowledges that he would not be in this title fight if McLaren didn’t keep making silly mistakes. I really think that these silly mistakes and their inability to pick a number one driver is what is going to lose them this championship and get Verstappen his fifth.