Charles Schwab Challenge Picks Bring Colonial Drama

The 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge brings the PGA Tour back to Colonial Country Club, and this week in Fort Worth feels like a reset after the birdie-fest chaos of the Texas swing.

Colonial is not supposed to be a dartboard.

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It’s old-school, strategic and built to make players think. The historic par-70 layout stretches 7,289 yards, but raw power doesn’t automatically win here. Perry Maxwell’s design, recently restored by Gil Hanse, asks for angles, patience and enough nerve to survive when pars actually matter.

That’s why this field is so interesting.

Ludvig Åberg enters as the clear betting favorite at 10-1, and statistically, it’s easy to see why. He has been gaining nearly three strokes per round over the past three months, putting him ahead of everyone else in this field.

The problem? Sundays. Åberg hasn’t won since the Genesis Invitational last year, and every close call adds another layer of pressure.

Justin Thomas is another name to watch at 25-1.

The two-time major champion closed the PGA Championship with a final-round 65 and finished T4, showing that his game is trending in the right direction. On a course like Colonial, where strategy can matter more than speed, Thomas has the imagination to contend.

Rickie Fowler also comes in with buzz at 24-1 after three straight top-10 finishes before the PGA Championship slowed his momentum. If his ball-striking and putter stay hot, Colonial fits the kind of creative golf that has always made Fowler dangerous.

Defending champion Ben Griffin returns at 25-1 after winning three times in 2025. His putter has helped him post three top-15 finishes in his last four starts, though his iron game still needs to sharpen if he wants to repeat.

The value board might be where this tournament gets fun. J.J. Spaun, listed at 32-1, already owns a Texas win this season and finished T6 at Colonial last year.

Tony Finau, at 67-1, is coming off a T6 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and owns five top-25 finishes in his last six Colonial starts.

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Andrew Novak is the sleeper at 75-1. He has five top-30 finishes in his last seven events and finished T11 here last season.

With Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka absent, Colonial has room for a surprise. But whoever wins will have to earn it.

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