The Houston Astros are still expected to win the AL West division despite their struggles in recent weeks as their lead in the standings has shrunk to concerning levels.
Entering the series against the Oakland Athletics on Sept. 11, it was unfathomable that the Houston Astros would lose ground in the division.
They had a two-and-a-half game lead heading into a stretch facing the MLB's two worst team Athletics and Kansas City Royals.
The Astros lost both those series and have dropped two games to the Baltimore Orioles, shrinking their lead to a half game over both the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners.
Despite the level of concern surrounding these struggles, FanGraphs still projects Houston to win the AL West when the season is over.
Entering play Wednesday, they give the Astros a 52.2% chance, the Mariners a 30.0% chance and the Rangers a 17.9% chance to finish on top of the division.
The projections are interesting to say the least.
Houston has another game with the AL leading Orioles on Wednesday, before hosting the Royals for a three-game slate. They then end on the road against Seattle, who has given them trouble, and the Arizona Diamondbacks who are fighting for their own playoff lives.
Texas and the Mariners will face each other seven times to close the season with the winner of that slate set to be the challengers for the division.
On paper, the Astros do have the easier schedule based on drawing the Royals at home.
But things haven't come easy for the World Series champions in the past couple weeks.
Pitching has given up tons of runs and their superstar hitters have gone cold, contributing to three straight losing series in a row.
Projections suggest that there should be no panic for Houston when it comes to winning the AL West. Whether it plays out that way on the field is to be seen.