Could the Astros Regret Trading Spencer Arrighetti for Daulton Varsho?

 The Houston Astros acquired Daulton Varsho from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Spencer Arrighetti on August 3, 2026. A few months later, the trade is worth revisiting.

Even at the time, the trade seemed like an odd move. Yes, Arrighetti was struggling on the mound, and he seemed like he had lost his groove, and then he landed on the IL. But he was crushing it in the first half of the season and, in my opinion, was holding much of the pitching staff together. He was named American League Pitcher of the Month in May, going 4–1 with a 0.93 ERA and 22 strikeouts across five starts. So they might have needed help in the outfield, but trading the one pitcher who held the staff together for months seemed like a risky move, especially considering how thin the staff was to begin with.

Also, it is not like Daulton Varsho was some clutch player they got in return. He was a rental, and frankly didn’t have much to offer at the plate, although his defense did bring value to the outfield.

Across 161 plate appearances, he had five home runs, 14 RBI, a 50 OPS+ and −0.1 bWAR. Then he landed on the injured list with wrist inflammation in late September. Houston didn’t get much offensive production from the acquisition.

Now, Arrighetti may have dominated in the early part of the season, but he hit a wall, and he couldn’t seem to get over it in Toronto either. He posted a 6.35 ERA in nine appearances with the Blue Jays.

So, Arrighetti didn’t immediately thrive either, and the numbers alone don’t establish that Houston lost the trade. That said, there is something to say about the numbers he put up in the first half of the season, and it seems like that kind of got swept under the rug.

Houston traded a pitcher with future value for a short-term solution that didn’t deliver offensively. It didn’t seem like the right choice at the time, and it really doesn’t seem like the right choice now. Especially since the pitching staff is still thin, and so is the outfield. They didn’t even really solve any issues with this trade. It is really hard to see how this was a good move back in August.

Houston has reason to question the trade, but it’s too early to call it a complete mistake. It will be interesting to see how Arrighetti performs in 2027. If he looks anything like he did in April and May, the Astros organization will be shaking its head.