Mike Burrows was one of the Astros' biggest offseason investments, while they aggressively attempted to bolster their pitching staff in the winter months.
To get Burrows, Houston sent outfielder Jacob Melton and right-handed pitcher Anderson Brito to Pittsburgh. Both were part of the Astros' minor league system and had been considered potential contributors down the line. The two were ranked first and third in Houston's farm system, and therefore, the expectations for Burrows were high.
Burrows was supposed to stabilize the rotation behind Hunter Brown, but the season hasn't really gone as planned for the Astros. Losing a handful of key pitchers, including the anchor Hunter Brown, left the Astros with a rocky and inconsistent pitching staff. As things fell apart, some pitchers rose to the occasion, and others didn't, inconsistency being the biggest hang-up.
That includes Burrows, who has been inconsistent with a 5.40 ERA. He has had some great moments, but has struggled to find the consistency the Astros desperately needed to stabilize the rotation, per MLB.
He suppresses hard contact well, posting an 87.6 MPH average exit velocity (73rd percentile) and a hard hit rate of just 36% (67th percentile), per Baseball Savant. Yet he has allowed the fifth most hits in MLB with 71 despite throwing the second fewest innings in that group. He has also given up 13 home runs, tied for second most in baseball.
Burrows has struggled with consistency, but some of the damage against him this year has also come down to bad luck and poor timing rather than just poor pitching.
The Encouraging Signs
May 27 start against the Rangers: seven innings, six strikeouts, two earned runs. May 8 start against the Reds: seven scoreless innings, his best of the season.
The advanced stats suggest there is a better pitcher in there. When he is on, he has shown he can be one of the better arms in the rotation. The Astros just need him to show up consistently.
What a Consistent Burrows Would Mean for the Astros
Combined with Arrighetti, Teng, Lambert, and a returning Hunter Brown, the rotation could be very strong. The Astros are just behind the Mariners for first in the AL West, and a productive Burrows could be the difference in a playoff push.
His June 2 start against his former team, the Pittsburgh Pirates, will tell us a lot. Can he finally string together consistent performances? The Astros need the answer to be yes.
