A's See Chicago Cubs as Blueprint for Pitching Success in Sacramento

As the season wound down, Athletics manager Mark Kotsay made an observation that illuminated what the team sees as a huge step the pitching staff needs to make in 2027. The simple answer is limiting walks.

"I think we figured out the formula for success in this park," Kotsay said. "We just can't walk people... Prime example is the Cubs. They've given up the second-most home runs in the league, and they're in the postseason. They've struck out less batters than we have, but yet they've walked a ton less hitters and their defense is elite."

The A's had the highest HR/9 rate at 1.55, with Colorado and the Cubs finishing tied for 28th with a 1.44. Chicago actually had a higher HR/FB rate at 14.4%, while the A's were at 13.9%. The A's finished with a team ERA of 5.53, which ranked 29th in baseball, while the Cubs ranked 14th with a 4.12 team ERA. 

In terms of pure home run numbers, the A's gave up the most, with 247, while the Cubs gave up the second-most with 231 allowed. 

Kotsay already said that one key was the difference in the team's walk rates, with the A's at 10% as a team, ranking 27th, while Chicago ranked 9th with an 8.2% walk rate. The league average for the season was 8.9%. A lower walk rate means more solo home runs and fewer two- or three-run homers without changing anything else. 

That keeps runs off the board.

A key that Kotsay didn't mention specifically, but one the A's targeted a little more down the stretch with some of the sinker-ball pitchers they claimed, is the difference in the team's ground-ball rates. 

The A's had the lowest ground-ball rate in baseball at 38%, making them a fly-ball team in a ballpark that penalizes fly-ball pitchers like Jeffrey Springs. The veteran left-hander gave up the second-most home runs this season with 35, tied with Chicago's Shota Imanaga. They both trailed Philadelphia's Aaron Nola, who gave up 37. 

The Cubs held a 42.3% ground-ball rate, ranking 12th-best. 

Imanaga ended up with a 3.77 ERA while Springs held a 6.18 ERA. The Cubs' left-hander had a 5.2% walk rate while the A's left-hander was a bit higher at 9%. 

The piece that's harder to make sense of here is that during the offseason ahead of the team's first year in Sacramento, Athletics Roundtable noticed the team targeting more ground-ball pitchers and asked then-GM David Forst about the strategy.

He joked that they didn't know how the ballpark would play, but in any park ground balls had a better chance of not being homers. 

Relief pitcher T.J. McFarland had been one of those additions ahead of the 2025 campaign, and he held a 61.3% ground-ball rate, but he also posted a 6.89 ERA in 15 ⅔ innings.

Sean Newcomb (48.9% ground-ball rate, 1.75 ERA) was a success story for the club in 2025, but he wanted a chance to start when he hit free agency, and the A's wouldn't give it to him. He ended up making six starts for the Chicago White Sox but appeared in 60 total games, holding a 3.09 ERA. His new team is now playing in the ALDS. 

Chris Roycroft (63.6% GB%) and Scott Blewett (50.5% GB%) were two late-season additions to the bullpen that took care of the ground-ball portion of the task, though Roycroft also held a 14.1% walk rate, which will have to come down. 

Springs had liked to attack hitters with his fastball up in the zone, but with the ball traveling so easily at Sutter Health Park, one of his biggest go-to pitches was all of a sudden a hindrance, and he was less willing to go upstairs in a big spot. Fourteen of the home runs he surrendered were on the four-seamer in 2026. 

"We've got to get the philosophy and the mindset in this ballpark to challenge and not be afraid to give up hits, but allow your defense to play and not walk guys," Kotsay said. "Doesn't seem that difficult. That's the standard, and it needs to be set." 

The A's have a better sense of the skills they're after — now it's just a matter of getting guys who can execute that game plan this offseason.