A's right-hander Jack Perkins is thriving as the season winds down. After talking with him about his approach to the final month early in September, we take a look at how that approach has worked by the numbers.
When Athletics Roundtable spoke with A's right-hander Jack Perkins earlier this month, he mentioned that he was going to work on trusting his stuff more down the stretch, and we may see him turn to his changeup or his sweeper more often than his four-seamer, since those offerings have better in-zone stats.
Over these past two starts, we have seen the right-hander follow through on that plan, and the result has been back-to-back outings going at least six innings in each, giving up a combined two runs (one earned). This stretch is also making him look like a strong contender for a rotation spot in 2027.
That one earned run came on Sunday's contested play where catcher Jonah Heim threw the ball into Jo Adell's back. Manager Mark Kotsay was ejected from the game for arguing that the runner was in the throwing lane in fair territory.
While the A's lost all six games they played on this past road trip against the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians, Perkins was able to shut down each club. The Rays are the best team in the American League, while the Guardians are close to clinching a postseason berth themselves.
What's Working For Perkins
On the year, Perkins has relied on his four-seamer 30.3% of the time, but as he said at the beginning of the month, it's been getting hit hard all season. Batters are hitting .303 against the heater with a 91.1 mph average exit velocity and a 26-degree launch angle. Here is how that stacks up with his other offerings across the whole season:
| Pitch | Usage | Average | xBA | Exit Velocity | Launch Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam | 30.3% | .303 | .255 | 91.1 mph | 26 |
| Sweeper | 28.6% | .224 | .214 | 88.5 mph | 24 |
| Changeup | 18.6% | .207 | .188 | 86.4 mph | -5 |
| Cutter | 14.7% | .377 | .308 | 86.2 mph | 7 |
| Sinker | 5% | .333 | .246 | 86.8 mph | -1 |
| Slider | 2.8% | .083 | .171 | 83.9 mph | 4 |
The thought process going into this final stretch of the season had been that if the four-seamer is getting hit hard, throw it less. On Sunday in Cleveland, Perkins' four-seamer was tied for his third-most used pitch. Both his changeup (28%) and cutter (21%) lead the way, followed by his sweeper and four-seamer at 20% each.
Of the 16 sweepers that he threw, seven of them were on the first pitch of an at-bat, offering a change of pace and getting him ahead in the count. Five of those seven landed as a first-pitch strike. The righty faced 22 batters and used five of his six pitches at least twice as the first pitch of an at-bat.
This led to his fastball, which averages 95.8 mph, having two batted ball events against the Guardians with an average exit velocity of just 57.5 mph. This is a one-game sample we're working with, but it's something to keep an eye on.
In his outing against the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday, September 15, Perkins went 6 ⅔ innings and allowed just one unearned run, walking one and striking out eight. In that game, his sweeper led the way at 24%, followed by his changeup (23%), cutter (23%), and four-seamer (16%).
In that game, he also used the sweeper heavily as a first-pitch offering, using it seven times against 24 batters faced. Leading the way, however, was his cutter, which he used 11 times. He landed 11 of those 18 cutters for strikes, and didn't record a single first-pitch strike with any of his other pitches.
We're really only looking at these two outings because they've had the best results for Perkins. Both teams don't strike out much, with Tampa Bay sitting first in strikeout rate and Cleveland ranking sixth, but the Rays also lead MLB in soft contact at 17.2%. Cleveland is more league average at 15.2%, ranking 13th.
Pitching backwards against those clubs was a smart tactic. We'll have to see if this is something that continues for Perkins in his final outing, or if this was a specific approach against those clubs.
Either way, he found a game plan that worked for him and executed that strategy against two teams that are hoping to be playing deep into October. That's a huge step in the right direction as the season winds down.
