With the Milwaukee Brewers taking a 3-0 lead in the World Series over the Tampa Bay Rays, we could be under a week away from knowing the direction of the Athletics' starting rotation. Five days after the conclusion of the World Series, Luis Severino's decision on his $22 million player option is due. The same goes for the A's decisions on the options for Jeffrey Springs ($15 million) and Jeff McNeil ($15.75 million). 

At the beginning of the offseason, A's interim GM Dan Feinstein said the team hopes Severino picks up his option, and according to the projections released by Spotrac, it may be tough to argue against staying with the club for one final season. 

Spotrac's market value contract for Severino in 2027 is projected at just $9.26 million, well below what he would receive with the A's if he picks up his option to stay with the club.

In his first season with the A's in 2025, Severino was not happy with pitching in Sacramento at Sutter Health Park, and was fairly vocal about those opinions early in the season. He seemed more focused in 2026 and even pitched a little better at home, holding a 5.33 ERA compared to a 6.01 ERA in 2025.

The most obvious reason Severino would choose to stay in Sacramento would be the money. Getting $22 million for one year when his projected market value says he'd make less than that across two years elsewhere is a good deal. Of course, that depends on the market value projection being infallible instead of an approximation. 

Another factor would be the expected lockout that's coming on December 1, which could lead to changes that leave him with less money than he's expecting by opting out.

The lockout would also freeze free agency until the start of spring training if the freeze lasts long enough, based on how things worked during the 2021-22 lockout. That would leave Severino to scramble with every other unsigned free agent. That uncertainty could be another reason to stick with the sure $22 million contract.

The final piece is that he spent most of the 2026 campaign on the injured list, hitting the IL with right arm discomfort on May 30 and missing the rest of the season. That's going to likely hurt his free-agent case, though he had gotten to a point at the end of the season where he would have been ready for a rehab assignment if there was more time left in the season. 

The case against staying with the A's is simply how much he has seemingly not enjoyed pitching in Sacramento, and the damage that a third season of pitching in a very hitter-friendly ballpark could do to his free-agent prospects following the 2027 season. 

Ultimately, Severino's decision will come down to what he and his agent believe the market will hold for them this winter, and whether seeing out his deal with the A's is worth it from a financial standpoint.