Oct 5, 2026 10:15 PM
The Blue Jays have eight players expected to see raises via the arbitration system.
Over the weekend, we learned the MLBTradeRumors projections for the Toronto Blue Jays when it comes to salary arbitration raises this offseason.
Of course, because of labor issues, the arbitration system can change, but for now, eight different Blue Jays are expected to see salary increases. The MLBTradeRumors projections are not gospel, but they are pretty close.
If the Blue Jays want to retain the player, then they can tender them a contract by the Nov. 27 deadline. If they do not want to keep the player badly enough to pay the player around the number, they can non-tender them and make them a free agent.
Here's more of what you need to know.
| Player | MLBTradeRumors projection |
|---|---|
| Ernie Clement | $7.6 million |
| Jose Soriano | $5.6 million |
| Josh Smith | $3.7 million |
| Spencer Arrigheti | $1.9 million |
| Bowden Francis | $1.3 million |
| Nathan Lukes | $2.9 million |
| Louis Varland | $3,.8 million |
| Davis Schneider | $1.3 million |
The clear-cut decisions
1) Soriano is absolutely getting a contract for next season and figures to slot in as the No. 2 man in the rotation behind Dylan Cease. Still just 27 years old, he features excellent stuff, and he went 12-8 with a 3.91 ERA this season. He made 32 starts, marking his second straight season of 30 starts or more.
Not only is he young and talented, but the Blue Jays also gave up Top 100 prospect Arjun Nimmala to acquire him from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline. He's clearly going to be on this roster in 2027 and he will be in 2028 as well.
2) Varland became one of the best relievers in baseball this season, pitching to a 1.27 ERA over 71 games. He had 35 saves despite not even being the closer for the first month of the season. $3.8 million is a small price to pay for elite bullpen performance.
Seems likely
Given all the injury issues that the Blue Jays had this season, pitching depth is never something that can be taken for granted. Arrigheti and Francis both have three years of team control remaining, and both figure have their contracts tendered as well. Arrigheti was acquired from Houston in the Daulton Varsho trade.
Probable
The Blue Jays aren't guaranteeing Clement a starting job in 2027, and $7.6 million is a lot of pay for a utility player, but Clement is still a very valuable guy to have around. He hits for a decent average and plays multiple positions. And he's also a fan favorite, as he earned an All-Star starting spot in 2026.
Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Ernie Clement (22) hits a two-run home run to left field against the Houston Astros during the 10th inning at Daikin Park. Erik Williams-Imagn ImagesCould go either way
1) Lukes hit .277 with 10 homers, but his OPS+ of 96 still suggests he was below average. With Brett Bateman and Addison Barger already as left-handed hitting outfielders, do the Jays really need another? And if they are as invested in a right-handed hitting outfielder as we think they are, do they want to pay nearly $3 million for a backup?
I still lean yes, especially with Barger's injury history, but there's at least a conversation.
2) Smith is essentially Clement, but he he's a left-handed hitter. Do the Blue Jays value the depth that both players provide, or do they think two players like this is redundant, especially at more than $10 million between them.
3) Schneider hit just .145 this season in 69 games. The money isn't a lot, but do the Jays think he'll get back to the productive bat he was in 2024 (13 homers) and 2025 (11))?
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