The plot thickened on Thursday for Toronto Blue Jays international pitching target Shoki Oda, who was selected in the first round of the NPB Draft by the Yomiuri Giants.

There's a lot of different things at play here, so let's take a deeper dive.

Oda is an 18-year-old Japanese high school phenom with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and a solid curveball. That's a good starting point right there, and all teams in the majors should be interested in that skillset.

1) Well, Oda was drafted by Yomiuri, who is clearly going to try to convince him to play in the NPB.

2) However, Oda has said previously that he doesn't want to play in the NPB. He wants to come to the United States as quickly as possible. He reportedly maintained that stance even after the draft.

1) Well, he can reverse course and decide to play in the NPB. At that point, he can stay over in that league for a period of years. If he comes over before he's 25 years old, like Roki Sasaki did, he can be signed under international bonus money rules. If he comes over after he's 25, like Munetaka Murakami did, then he can be signed as an unrestricted free agent.

2) Or, he can come over now. If he chooses to come over right now and wants to start his pro career, then he can sign as an international free agent like Sasaki did. And since he's only 18, he'd obviously need lots of minor league seasoning.

3) He could also come over now, and decide to go to college. If he enrolls in school, he'd be eligible for NIL money, and then he'd hit the MLB Draft in a few years.

Like all things, the looming MLB lockout matters a great deal here. Because of the lockout, no one knows exactly when the 2027 international signing period will take place. Does Oda want to hold out when he doesn't know when he can get signed, or for how much money, or when the 2027 season will start as a result?

Remember: Minor League Baseball gets played in a lockout, but if the signing period is pushed back until the lockout is resolved, there's no telling when he can actually get in an organization.

Simple. If he goes to college or the NPB, then he's just someone to follow from afar for a few years. If he wants to be signed ASAP, then it's time to start thinking of pitches for one of the top young arms in the world.

Oda isn't the only Japanese target the Blue Jays are thinking about though. They are also interested in Teruaki Sato, a free agent slugger from the Hanshin Tigers.