After a disappointing weekend series in Texas, the Jays have seen their playoff odds plummet.
After a disappointing weekend series in Texas in which they lost two-of-three to the Rangers, the playoff odds for the Toronto Blue Jays are down to 3.5 percent, per Fangraphs.
Toronto lost two-of-three to the Detroit Tigers before losing two against the Rangers, a team they were directly battling with for the American League's third wild card spot.
Let's outline what you need to know heading into the final week of the regular season.
How the wild card No. 3 race shapes up right now
| Team | Record | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 80-76 | -- |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 77-79 | 3.0 |
| Houston Astros | 77-79 | 3.0 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 75-81 | 5.0 |
1) The White Sox have the season tiebreaker on the Blue Jays, so the Blue Jays are essentially 4.0 games back of the White Sox with six games to play.
2) The Blue Jays and Astros went 3-3 against each other, so head-to-head isn't relevant here. The next tiebreaker is "intra-division record." At the moment, the Blue Jays would have the tiebreaker there. They are 25-24 against the American League East while the Astros are 22-24 against the American League West.
Both teams still have divisional matchups this week that will fully determine it.
Other things to consider
The Cleveland Guardians only lead the White Sox by one game in the American League Central. The White Sox have the tiebreaker on Cleveland, so if they get back into a tie, then Cleveland would come back to the wild card race.
The Blue Jays do have the tiebreaker on Cleveland, who is currently 81-75. The Blue Jays are four games back of them, also with six to play.
The Rangers only lead the Astros by one game in the American League West. Should those two teams end up tied, the Astros have the tiebreaker, which would bump the Rangers down to the wild card.
The Blue Jays do not have the tiebreaker on the Rangers, so they'd be behind them in the standings. They are effectively two games behind Texas right now because of that.
Remaining schedules
Blue Jays: 3 games @ Orioles (M-W) and 3 games vs. Reds (F-Sun).
White Sox: 3 games @ Royals (T-Thur.) and 3 games vs. Rockies (F-Sun).
Astros: 2 games @ Mariners (T-W) and 4 games @ Athletics (Thur.-Sun.)
Orioles: 3 games vs. Blue Jays (M-W) and 3 games @ Yankees (F-Sun.)
Rangers: 3 games vs. Mets (T-Thur.) and 3 games @ Twins (F-Sun).
Guardians: 3 games @ Red Sox (T-Thur.) and 3 games @ Royals (F-Sun).
