The Toronto Blue Jays enter play on Thursday at 76-77 and despite being under .500, they still have a solid chance at a trip to the playoffs for the second straight year.

The Blue Jays are 1.5 games back of the Chicago White Sox in the battle for the third and final wild card spot, and they are also 0.5 games back of the Texas Rangers, who are also chasing Chicago.

But with three games against Texas on tap for this weekend, the Jays can help put some separation between the two teams in that battle. The Blue Jays have a nearly 27 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to Fangraphs.

While making the playoffs is obviously the goal every year, and doing so this year would be a nice accomplishment, it has generally been a frustrating year for Toronto, no matter what happens in the last nine games.

The question is, how did we get here? How did a team that was supposed to get to the World Series end up in a spot where its fighting for its playoff life in the final days of the season?

While nobody likes to use injuries as an excuse, it's undeniable that injuries have played a huge part in this season.

Anthony Santander, signed before 2025 to be a masher in the middle of the lineup, has not playing one single game this year. 

Addison Barger, who broke out in the playoffs in 2025, has played all of nine games.

George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (7-day concussion IL) all spent time on the injured list.

And on the pitching side? Bowden Francis and Jose Berrios didn't throw a single pitch because of Tommy John surgery. Cody Ponce, signed in the offseason, tore his Achilles in his first start and hasn't pitched since. Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and Max Scherzer have all had multiple turns on the injured list. Patrick Corbin, signed to help alleviate some of the injury woes, also ended up on the injured list. Dylan Cease, who's been excellent, also missed some time on the IL.

It's been well-established that Guerrero has had a down year, with only nine home runs. But what's more interesting is the following split:

In 69 Blue Jays wins that he's played in, Guerrero is hitting .356 with a .947 OPS.

In 69 Blue Jays losses that he's played in, Guerrero is hitting .153 with a .429 OPS.

His impact on this lineup has been truly remarkable, and almost nothing tells the story of the Blue Jays like this stat. They go as he goes. It's that simple. Had he "gone" more often this year, they'd likely be in a much different spot.