So, we've talked a decent amount so far this offseason about Toronto Blue Jays' free agent right-hander Shane Bieber.

Bieber, now 31, has said he wants to be back in Toronto after spending 1.5 years with the organization. Former outfielder Kevin Pillar has said he thinks a reunion between the two sides makes sense. I've cautioned against signing Bieber to a free agent deal. However, it's true that we also can't ignore the idea of a qualifying offer for the veteran.

So, let's take a deeper dive.

A nine-year veteran of the Cleveland Guardians and Blue Jays. He will turn 32 in May of 2027. He owns a career record of 71-36 and an ERA of 3.31. He won the American League Cy Young in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, when he went 8-1 with a 1.63 for Cleveland. That season was just 60 games.

In parts of those two seasons with Toronto, he's gone 9-4 with a 4.03 ERA. He only made 18 regular season appearances between the two years though. However, he was critical in the team's 2025 playoff run, even starting Game 7 of the American League Championship Series against the Seattle Mariners.

Bieber was scheduled to be a free agent at the conclusion of that season, but he surprisingly exercised his player option to return, proving how much he values his time with the Jays.

With regards to those only 18 appearances, injuries have unfortunately been part of the story for him.

He missed all but two starts in 2024 with Cleveland because of Tommy John surgery and then missed the first half of 2025 while recovering. He was traded to the Blue Jays during that recovery.

He didn't pitch until June of 2026 because of forearm fatigue related to his Tommy John surgery, and he didn't pitch after Aug. 20 because of a new shoulder issue.

Under the current collective bargaining agreement, teams can offer pending free agents a one-year qualifying offer contract. If the player accepts, then they return to the offering team. If they decline, the original team can get a compensatory draft pick should that player sign somewhere else.

Even though the current CBA is expiring in December, teams can still offer qualifying offers for 2027 this year. The decision to give them out and accept/decline will happen before the conclusion of this CBA.

If the Blue Jays offer Bieber a qualifying offer, it will be a one-year, $23-ish million deal.

As people say, there's no such thing as a bad contract. However, for me, this would be a bad deal. For starters, I think Bieber would accept it because I don't think he'd find a better deal in free agency, especially with the labor situation making the financial side of things so uncertain right now.

And, I just don't think Bieber is deserving of that kind of money right now. The injury history and risk is too great. While I think the Blue Jays should spend their resources elsewhere, if they are ever committed to bringing him back, I think they could get him for less.