The Blue Jays lost against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday night, and only five games remain in the season.
Entering play on Monday, the Toronto Blue Jays already had extremely unlikely playoff odds (about three percent).
After a 4-3 loss against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday night, the Jays odds are now down to 1.1 percent according to Fangraphs.
While not a guarantee, it seems like a foregone conclusion that the Blue Jays won't be playing playoff baseball in 2026, meaning that the Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, all teams that got to the playoffs in 2025, won't be making the return trip.
After getting one inning from winning the World Series last season, this has been an incredibly difficult encore for the Jays.
Here's what you need to know with five games remaining in the season.
How the wild card race looks
| Team | Record | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 80-76 | 0 |
| Houston Astros | 77-79 | 3 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 77-80 | 3.5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 76-81 | 4.5 |
1) The White Sox have the season tiebreaker on the Blue Jays, so the Blue Jays are essentially 4.5 games back of the White Sox with those five games to play. The White Sox have six games left.
2) The Blue Jays and Astros went 3-3 against each other, so head-to-head isn't a tiebreaker here. The next tiebreaker is "intra-division record." At the moment, the Blue Jays would have the tiebreaker there. They are 25-25 against the American League East while the Astros are 22-24 against the American League West.
The Blue Jays have two more matchups against the Orioles which will fully determine the intra-division record. The Astros have six divisional games remaining as the season winds down. So, there is still time for movement on those fronts.
Other things you need to know
1) The Cleveland Guardians lead the White Sox by one game in the American League Central. Should those teams end up in a tie, the White Sox would get the advantage because of tiebreakers.
If Cleveland falls into the wild card, the Blue Jays have the tiebreaker over them. However, the Blue Jays need Cleveland to lose every game and the Blue Jays to win every game to pass them. Toronto is 5.5 games worse than Cleveland right now.
2) The Blue Jays "tragic number" is down to two. That means any combination of two White Sox wins and Blue Jays losses will eliminate them from the playoff race. The Jays could be eliminated as early as Tuesday as a result.
How we got here
The Blue Jays failure this year will be something that will be talked about by fans for years, and the answer is layered.
--The offense in general regressed, as the Jays have posted an offseason performance unlike one they have seen in 45 years.
--With that, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has posted the worst season of his career, with an OPS+ of 106, suggesting that he's a below average player.
--Injuries have piled up for this group in a devastating way. Bowden Francis and Jose Berrios have missed the entire season, as has Anthony Santander. Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer and Trey Yesavage have been on the injured list multiple times. Cody Ponce made only one start before getting hurt.
Alejandro Kirk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer all spent at least some time on the injured list, with Kirk missing more than two months. Addison Barger played only nine games.
Add it all up, and it's been nearly impossible to overcome.
