Why The Atlanta Braves Should Not Get Complacent With Austin Riley

In Game One of the Atlanta Braves’ NL Wild Card Series against the Philadelphia Phillies, momentum had swung in favor of their division rival until the bottom of the eighth inning.

With two outs and two runners on, Braves’ third baseman Austin Riley delivered an electric, go-ahead three-run homer to put the Braves on top late in the game. It gave Atlanta a momentum boost that carried into their eventual series win, though they would end up falling in the NLDS in four games shortly after.

Riley’s big moment gave the Braves not only a moment to remember, but also a jolt of relief as it felt the Braves could trust the 29-year-old at the dish once again. After what had been a slow month of September and an overall down season for Riley, the Braves had seen flashes of the hitter their third baseman could be.

For eight seasons since Riley was called up in 2019, the Braves have heavily relied on his elite offensive production in the heart of their batting order. In 2022, Atlanta inked Riley to a 10-year, $212 million contract extension as a result of the consistent hitter he has been for the Braves.

From 2021-2023, Riley’s slugging was at an all-time high. He had hit over 30 home runs and recorded over 90 RBI in each season, as his OPS hovered in the high-800’s. His best statistical numbers came in the year he helped bring a World Series championship to Atlanta in 2021.

However, in 2026, Riley’s production at the dish had seen an overall drop-off. It ended up being the worst statistical season of his career. In fact, Riley’s numbers have gradually decreased after the 2023 season.

Riley recorded an 81 wRC+ at the plate and had just a 1.0 fWAR this season in 159 games played. After he had posted a fWAR of 5.1 or higher from 2021-2023, Riley has yet to match half of that number in each of his last three seasons.

For the first time in a season in which Riley played over 100 games, Riley’s batting average was below .250 — by a significant margin. His .219 batting average in 2026 was a concern, as he also recorded an OPS under .700 for the first time in his career. In the NLDS this year, Riley went 0-for-13 at the dish with six strikeouts in the Braves’ biggest games of the season.

Riley is under contract through the 2032 season, so he will undoubtedly be a part of the Braves’ plans for a while. But as the team heads into the 2027 season, there should not be a strong level of complacency and expectation with Riley at the plate, as he has begun to decline over the past couple of seasons. 

Atlanta will surely stick with Riley at third base going forward, and they should, but the idea of owning depth at the position should be explored in the case that his struggles continue and a platoon begins to look ideal.